China is the world's biggest market and its potential for economic development has received considerable attention. But the gaps between the rich and the poor, and between urban and rural areas in China have also been in the limelight.
Statistics quoted by the Chinese government usually don't reflect the analysis of Chinese and foreign economists. So asking how great these gaps are is like asking for a precise figure for the total population of China in that no government official or expert can answer the question with certainty.
Recently, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji (朱鎔基) said that the gaps between the rich and poor, and rural and urban areas in China had not reached the international danger level. However, a recent article in The Economist expressed skepticism about Zhu's reassuring response. In fact, irrespective of whether the statistics have exceeded the danger level, China can't paper over the internal social crises brought about by its economic development. China's current social crises are twofold: the lack of an integral value system, and a concern about the possibility that the country might catch the so-called "Brazilian disease."
In comparison with the US, the country that China endeavors to counterbalance and catch up with, China not only has a different economy, but also a completely different fundamental value system upon which national development is based. The US model may not be perfect, but it is built on the notion of everyone being equal, respect for human rights and judicial independence. More importantly, divergent values blend and become part of a US culture that is capable of reaching out to other cultures. The US is therefore a heaven in many peoples' minds.
The illegitimate ties between political and business interests, and the pivotal role played by the mafia in the underground economy have also become serious social problems in China. China has become a society that gives top priority to the development of the economy, but lacks the moral values to support social development. This turns the Chinese market into a jungle. The logic that "the weak are the prey of the strong" dominates the market. Although many big foreign enterprises have a presence in China, all they want to do is share the market out amongst themselves.
In reality, every nation going through the process of economic development faces transitional social problems associated with growth.What matters is whether there are mechanisms that act as a stabilizing force and prompt self-examination. The middle classes in Taiwan and South Korea have played critical roles during periods of political and economic transition in these two countries.
China must also avoid being plagued by the so-called "Brazilian disease." The symptoms of this disease include a serious income gap between the rich and the poor, and a weak middle class. Brazil has achieved high but unevenly distributed economic growth within a short period.
In the face of social changes brought about by economic development, the middle class is an important, but not the only, stabilizing force needed for healthy development and growth. In China, the voices demanding change, however, have been mostly extinguished and those that remain largely echo from exile. China's economic growth may continue, but neglected social crises hidden government repression and strong economic growth have become a ticking time tomb that will explode, perhaps sooner rather than later.
Hsu Tung-ming is a freelance writer currently residing in Beijing.
Translated by Jackie Lin
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