Taiwan's stock market seems to have entered a fixed pattern of responses. Whenever the index falls, the government intervenes and comes up with some new measures to bring good news to the market. When the "bubble" measures burst, investors wait for even bigger "bubbles" from the government to salvage the market. The entire process is like drinking poison to quench your thirst. A meeting was held between the Presidential Office, Executive Yuan and DPP last night to formulate more financial measures. But how long can a "good news" bubble last when the effects of such bubbles on the market is decreasing drastically?
At a time when Taiwan's economic development is going in the direction of privatization, the stock market is heading in the opposite direction: the nationalization of private businesses. As government funds pump more money into the market, the government has become a major shareholder in many listed companies. Wobbling investor confidence is its biggest worry right now. Despite the government's assurances that Taiwan's economic fundamentals are sound, the share prices of half of the listed companies are now below NT$10. Those of another one fourth are worth less than NT$5 each -- less than the cost of chicken eggs or dumplings. Now even the National Stabilization Fund has come under suspicions of insider trading.
The lack of confidence stems from the machinations in the political sphere. Public confidence in the government's problem-solving ability -- and in the credibility of political leaders -- is teetering. The recent low approval ratings for the president and Cabinet members show that the public does not have enough trust in the government. Trust between political parties was destroyed by the Cabinet's decision to halt the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant
To restore market confidence, the government will first need to restore public confidence in the political sphere. Some legislators have called for a halt to political struggles for the sake of economic development. But so far no solid, feasible plan has emerged. Chen's proposed round-table meeting between party leaders has gone up in smoke, but the communication channels set up by DPP Chairman Frank Hsieh
Given that the opposition parties have been giving him a thumbs-up recently for his conciliatory remarks, we suggest that Hsieh utilize these communication channels. We suggest that he visit the various party leaders to discuss the pressing financial, economic, cross-strait and systemic issues, thereby paving the way for a National Economic Development Conference and the meeting of the inter-party task force on cross-strait affairs.
If Hsieh can achieve solid results, rebuilding confidence in the government and trust between political parties, then we may be able to go further and resume promotion, step by step, of the inter-party round-table meeting, the cross-strait task force and the National Unification Council, the National Economic Development Conference, and perhaps even a National Affairs Conference on constitutional issues.
Only after the political confidence crisis is resolved can the economy return to normal. Only then can we salvage investor confidence and the stock market. The ruling party's nine-member consultation team is now hard at work formulating measures to deal with the financial problems. But without political antidotes, any financial and economic measures will only cure the symptoms and not the disease.
Any attempt to save Taiwan has to begin by restoring the public confidence in the president, the government, the parties and the economy.
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