On Saturday, the people of Taiwan will decide who their president will be for the next four years. Through a referendum on the same day, which will be the first of its kind in the history of Taiwan, the people will decide whether to take a path of political development toward peace and stability, and choose between freedom and totalitarianism. After fierce competition between the pan-green and pan-blue camps in the presidential campaign over the past six months, the difference in support for the two camps has narrowed so that they are now running neck and neck. Soon we will know the winner.
Since the Lunar New Year holiday, the two camps have been competing for the support of the swing voters who make up 30 percent of the electorate. In the social structure of Taiwan, core pan-blue voters make up 38 percent of the electorate and core pan-green supporters 32 percent. These are sure votes for the two camps that the other camp cannot reach. The number of voters in Taiwan is approximately 16.5 million. Of these, 42 percent live in the north, 25 percent in central Taiwan, 29 percent in the south and 4 percent in the east. In the north and east, the pan-blue camp has the edge, while in the south the pan-green camp has a strong lead. In central Taiwan the two camps are in a tie.
ILLUSTRATION: MOUNTAIN PEOPLE
Paranoia and hatred
The race between the two camps is more competitive than in an previous election. Both camps are now driven by paranoia and hatred, having lost their rationality in the political bickering. The four major political and economic campaign platforms of President Chen Shui-bian
The campaign strategy of the pan-green camp highlights an identification with Taiwan's native culture. Last year, former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) headed a campaign to rectify the name of Taiwan, which was justified by the fact that the "ROC on Taiwan no longer exists." The campaign targeted both swing voters and members of academic and political circles. Through a series of academic seminars and conferences, efforts were made to awaken the Taiwanese consciousness of the swing voters. On Sept. 16 last year, a large rally of 150,000 people in Taipei shocked the pan-blue camp, triggering panic, chaos and frictions within the alliance. Moreover, the campaign inspired the unity and passion of the 32 percent of the electorate who are traditional pan-green voters.
Chen's campaign to call for support for deepening political reforms and writing a new constitution initially targeted the south, including Kaohsiung City. On Oct. 25 last year, around 200,000 people enthusiastically took part in this campaign to draft a new constitution by joining an unprecedented rally. This further shook the pan-blue camp. In response, Lien and Soong moved to blacken Chen's name, fabricating allegations of incompetence and "black gold" politics. They further used former Tuntex chairman Chen Yu-hao (陳由豪), now a fugitive, to fabricate accusations that President Chen took illegal political donations. The goal was to make up a story about Chen's practice of using "black gold" politics and undermine his image.
The pan-blue camp intensified its attacks, focusing on blackening Chen's character. However, these efforts have failed to resonate with swing voters. Lien and Soong also refuse to speak openly about their support for the "one China" principle and "one country, two systems." This is because the "one China" principle has lost just about all its appeal as the name-rectification campaign and the drive for a new constitution have taken over. Lien and Soong have failed to propose any political and constitutional reforms, merely pitching empty calls for economic reforms which have failed to win over the hearts of swing voters. This is because in the fourth quarter of last year Taiwan's economy grew 4 percent, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent. With the revival of the economy and the stock market, no wonder the the pan-blue camp's slogans on economic development have been unable to reach the hearts of the swing voters.
After the KMT and the PFP established their alliance, the pan-blue camp nominated Lien as the presidential candidate and Soong as the vice presidential candidate. However, the inherent ideological conflicts between and within the two political parties give cause for concern. The PFP supports "one country, two systems," while the KMT endorses the "one China" principle. Yet the localization faction within the KMT feels very uneasy about the marriage of convenience between the two, undermining the will of the alliance's campaign team to fight. In the campaign so far, the pan-blue camp has held 62 large rallies. However, of these, fewer than 10 had more than 10,000 people. In contrast, the pan-green camp has organized more than 50 rallies attended by President Chen that attracted more than 10,000 people. The pan-green camp has conducted 50 smaller rallies and has been in lead in terms of such mobilization.
The 228 Hand-in-Hand Rally of Feb. 28 -- which urged the public to support the referendum -- included more than 2 million individuals who formed a more than 500km-long human chain from the north to the south of Taiwan. Even more important is the fact that through the event the people of Taiwan expressed a determination to refuse Chinese subjugation and decide for themselves the future of Taiwan.
The people of Taiwan said "Yes" to themselves and "No" to China and the 496 Chinese missiles it has deployed across the Strait from Taiwan. The fact that the rally was held on the 228 Memorial Day also served to demonstrate the people's discontent with the pan-blue camp and its "one China" principle. They are fed up with past military totalitarianism under then KMT rule. As a result of the success of the rally, President Chen's popular support immediately climbed by about 5 percentage points, suggesting that around 700,000 moderate voters had decided to side with the pan-green. President Chen's popular support surpassed that of Lien and Soong as a result.
Many already have a good idea what the outcome of the election will be. Among the 4 million swing voters between the ages of 20 and 29, many people have already discovered, based on the conduct of Lien and Soong since the election campaign began, that the pair have the authoritarian characters of totalitarian old men. Many have as a result decided to support President Chen. The pan-green's political reforms to deepen democratization, the campaign to rewrite the Constitution and support for the referendum have won the support of localized voters and attracted the swing voters. It is predicted President Chen will win more than 50 percent of the votes cast, approximately 52 percent to 55 percent.
Rally flip-flop
As part of the pan-blue camp's mud-slinging election campaign strategy, it had initially planned to mobilize around 1 million supporters for an anti-black-gold rally last Saturday. However, such a rally would have made Lien look bad, since he had become the center of "black gold" allegations by former Taiwan Pineapple Group (台鳳) vice chairman Huang Tsung-hung (黃宗宏). Therefore, the theme of the rally was changed at the last minute to a protest against President Chen. It is unlikely that such an appeal can attract swing voters. However, the rally at least serves the purpose of fortifying the support of traditional pan-blue voters.
In the election campaign thus far, the pan-blue camp has remained in a passive and defensive position, while the ruling pan-green camp has adopted an aggressive approach of initiating all the campaign issues and spearheading all the associated debates. In the last week before election day, the pan-green camp will have three more large-scale rallies. President Chen, who is in his early 50s and therefore at the prime of his life, will attend at least two rallies each day to pitch for his ideals and political reforms, a new constitution and the referendums. All these should boost support for the pan-green camp in this last week. It is true that the pan-blue camp also staged a demonstration on March 13 in an attempt counter the pan-green camp's efforts. However, the pan-green camp is best-known for its massive mobilization. The result of the two camps' mobilization race should ensure Chen's re-election and the security of Taiwan.
Lee Chang-kuei (李長貴) is president of the Taipei Times and professor emeritus at National Taiwan University.
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