The nation’s exports last month recorded a fifth consecutive month of annual growth, rising 4.7 percent year-on-year to US$28.36 billion, the Ministry of Finance reported yesterday.
The pace of annual growth was less than 9.4 percent in June because of a higher comparison base in July last year, a ministry report said.
Imports last month rose 20.5 percent year-on-year to US$26.12 billion, leaving a trade surplus of US$2.24 billion, it said.
Last month’s trade surplus narrowed from US$5.21 billion in June and was 58.5 percent lower than a year earlier, which the ministry attributed to greater imports of agricultural and industrial raw materials, capital equipment and consumer products, the report said.
That import growth is significantly outpacing export growth could also be the result of trade tensions between two of Taiwan’s largest trading partners — the US and China — that have spiked over the past few weeks, Moody’s Analytics said yesterday.
“At a time of slowing export growth, the escalating trade war is a key downside risk for Taiwan, as its economy is highly exposed to global value chains,” Sydney-based Moody’s Analytics economist Veasna Kong said in a note.
However, growth in overall customs-cleared exports was welcome news to the economy, after the Ministry of Economic Affairs’ latest data for export orders — indicative of outbound shipments in one to three months — showed an annual decline of 0.1 percent to US$40.31 billion in June.
“A positive figure will be important to help confirm that the decline in June export orders was a one-off, rather than indicative of a contraction trend,” DBS Bank Ltd Singapore-based economist Ma Tieying (馬鐵英) said in a note ahead of the data release.
China, including Hong Kong, continued to be the largest export destination for Taiwan with US$11.58 billion of shipments, accounting for 40.8 percent of total value last month, followed by ASEAN markets at 17.6 percent (US$4.99 billion) and the US at 11.8 percent (US$3.35 billion), the report showed.
In the first seven months of this year, Taiwan’s exports grew 10 percent year-on-year to US$192.19 billion, the highest level for that period, while imports rose 12.2 percent to US$164.4 billion, the report said.
The finance ministry said that it remains upbeat about the export momentum in the second half of this year on the back of a positive outlook for artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, automotive electronics, high-performance computing and other applications.
However, the pace of annual growth in the coming months might decelerate due to a higher comparison base last year, with global trade tensions, foreign exchange fluctuations and increased competition from abroad also causing uncertainty, it said.
Exports this month could increase by 1.5 percent to 4 percent from a year earlier after factoring in potentially lower shipments by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (台積電) following a computer virus attack, Department of Statistics Director-General Beatrice Tsai (蔡美娜) yesterday told the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the sister newspaper of the Taipei Times).
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