The government’s business monitoring system edged up to flash “yellow-blue” last month, after flashing “blue” for 10 consecutive months, aided by better imports of machinery and electrical equipment, but the improvement might not last amid a stalling global economy, the National Development Council (NDC) said yesterday.
“The yellow-blue light was an indication that the economy is changing gears, but it is hard to say whether it would turn better or worse,” council research director Wu Ming-huei (吳明蕙) said at a press conference.
Wu cited as an example leading indicators, which resumed a mild downturn last month after holding steady one month earlier, suggesting continued economic weakness.
The total score for the council’s business indicators rose to 17 last month, just one point above the recessionary “blue” zone, the council’s report showed.
Imports of machineries and electrical equipment usually stem from export needs, and expectations of better orders and sales likely drove local companies to expand manufacturing capacity, Wu said.
Technology companies by and large gave a conservative guidance about their business outlook for the current quarter, but expect a concrete improvement in the second half of the year.
The council’s trend-adjusted leading indicators, which predict the economic scene one to six months ahead, dipped 0.25 percent to 97.72, as the semiconductor book-to-bill ratio and Taiwan Stock Exchange closing prices registered positive cyclical movements.
However, the indices on export orders, building permits and money supply declined, the report said.
In particular, the contraction in export orders widened to double-digit percentage points last month, indicating that actual shipments this month might deteriorate after the pace of decline eased one month earlier.
The coincident indicators, a mirror of current economic status, slid 0.05 percent to 98.26 last month, constrained by tepid exports, industrial production sales, and wholesale and retail business, the report said.
“Against this backdrop, consumers will hesitate to spend freely,” Wu said.
Separately, the consumer confidence index shed 0.55 points to 79.82 this month, dropping below the 80-point level for the first time since January 2014, a survey by National Central University showed yesterday.
All six sub-indices lost values as uneasy sentiment deepened, the survey indicated.
The reading on inflationary expectations reported the biggest fall of 1.55 points to 56.65, consistent with gradual hikes in international crude prices, while the gauge on employment fell 0.75 points and the measure on investment outlook shed 0.7 points, the survey showed.
People voiced less confidence about household income in the coming six months and turned slightly more conservative about durable goods consumption, it showed.
After several years flying high as Asia’s best Nvidia Corp proxy, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) is increasingly vying with other artificial intelligence (AI) stocks for investor attention. Stock traders are chasing a wider array of beneficiaries as mainstream usage of AI creates demand for hardware beyond the most-advanced chips TSMC makes for Nvidia. Subthemes from the deepening memory crunch to advances in robotics are also luring bids. At the same time, investment caps on single stocks are pushing funds to diversify, while retail investors long familiar with TSMC through its US depositary receipts are being offered a broader set of
UNDER MICROSCOPE: Taiwan detained three people who allegedly conspired to buy servers in Taiwan and export them using fraudulent documentation, prosecutors said Nvidia Corp chief executive officer Jensen Huang (黃仁勳) on Saturday urged Super Micro Computer Inc to tighten up on compliance after Taiwan detained three people this week for allegedly making fraudulent declarations about artificial intelligence (AI) servers made by its US partner. The development marked the nation’s first crackdown on semiconductor smuggling, which grew after the US slapped restrictions on exports of high-end chips such as Nvidia AI accelerators to China. Nvidia is “rigorous” in explaining regulations to all of its partners, Huang told reporters after arriving in Taipei. “Ultimately Super Micro has to run their own company,” he said in response to
TECH RELIANCE: Growth is increasingly reflecting an unequal K-shaped distribution, where technology sectors outperform and other industries struggle, an expert said Standard Chartered Bank has significantly raised its forecast for Taiwan’s economic growth to 9.5 percent this year, up from 7.6 percent previously, citing surging artificial intelligence (AI) demand driving exports, semiconductor production and investment. The upgrade reflects a sustained AI supercycle that continues to fuel demand for advanced chips and technology infrastructure, which form the backbone of Taiwan’s exports, the bank said in a report this week. “We raise our 2026 growth forecast to reflect a much stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP figure,” Standard Chartered senior economist for greater China and Asia Tommy Wu (胡東安) said in the report. Driven largely by a 35.3 percent
Two of Taiwan’s international carriers, Starlux Airlines Co (星宇航空) and EVA Airways Corp (長榮航空), have retained the five-star airline rating awarded by international airline review organization Skytrax. Starlux was awarded the distinction for a second consecutive year, while EVA Air received it for the 11th straight year, Skytrax said in statements released yesterday and on Thursday last week, respectively. The five-star rating is considered one of the airline industry's highest honors and is awarded following professional audits of airline product and frontline service standards, Skytrax said. The ratings are based on in-depth assessments using unified global quality standards rather than customer review scores
RSS