Record growth in solar, especially in China and India, was a driving factor for clean energy sources surpassing the world’s robust demand for electricity last year, a new global power analysis said.
Clean power generation grew 887 terawatt-hours (TWh) last year, exceeding overall global electricity demand growth of 849TWh, said a report by energy think tank Ember, released after midnight yesterday.
Ember analyzes electricity data from 215 countries, and studied data from last year for 91 countries, which the firm says represents 93 percent of global demand.
Photo: AFP
Overall, the share of renewables — including solar, wind, hydropower and other clean energies — hit more than one-third of the world’s electricity mix for the first time in modern history last year, growing 33.8 percent to 10,730TWh.
It is promising news for a world embattled by climate change that is driven by the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas to meet growing needs from economic growth, rising populations and electrification. The analysis is also especially timely amid a global energy crisis exacerbated by the US war in Iran.
In another historical first, coal power saw its share fall below one-third of global generation, dropping 0.6 percent to 63TWh.
“We’re coming from a period over the last few decades where new electricity demand growth meant growth in fossil generation,” said Nicolas Fulghum, Ember senior data analyst and lead author of the report. “We’re now moving into a world where that’s no longer the case.”
Solar, which grew 30 percent last year, alone met three-quarters of last year’s net rise in electricity demand — and combined with wind power generation, met 99 percent of it.
Although solar overtook wind power globally for the first time last year and gained on nuclear power, Ember expects the two to overtake nuclear this year.
Meanwhile, fossil fuel generation essentially halted, and fell about 0.2 percent last year, or 38TWh, making last year one of only a handful of years without a rise this century.
Growth in battery storage accompanied the acceleration of solar around the world; as battery costs fell 45 percent last year, storage grew 46 percent.
Ember estimates that enough battery capacity was added last year to shift 14 percent of the solar generation added from midday to other hours of the day.
That is an important part of using solar generation beyond the daytime, when it can be collected.
So, “despite the accelerated growth and electricity demand that comes with added electric vehicle build-out, of heat pumps, industrial sector electrification, clean power will be able to structurally meet that increase in demand going into the next few years, before then bending the curve and reducing the amount of fossil generation we’re using; and that is a stark departure from the last few decades,” Fulghum said.
Last year also marked the first time this century that both China and India — historically major contributors of fossil power — saw declines in fossil fuel generation. In China, the decline was 0.9 percent, or 56TWh, and in India, 3.3 percent, or 56TWh.
Instead, they’re “now aggressively pursuing a strategy of diversification through bringing renewables into the mix, and those are the sources that are the biggest drivers of change in their power system today,” Fulghum said.
China led the globe in solar, and is responsible for more than half of the world’s growth in both solar capacity and generation last year. China also accounted for most of the world’s rise in wind, with 138TWh added.
India saw record increases in both solar and wind generation, along with strong hydropower output.
In a reversal from fossil fuel generation increases — which for years, were driven by an economic rebound following the COVID-19 pandemic — India also saw lower-than-average demand growth.
The US and Europe added 85TWh and 60TWh respectively of solar last year, as fossil fuels saw small increases.
US President Donald Trump’s administration has placed pressure on industry leaders to boost coal, oil and gas production and reduced support for renewables; but in Europe, fossil generation is generally trending down. The analysis suggests that despite efforts attacking clean energy in the US, and war-related challenges, the transition continues to make headway around the world.
“As we’re seeing the cost of oil be incredibly volatile right now because of the war, I think more and more people are looking to that national security argument as a reason to think about how we electrify more and how we’re able to take advantage of additional solar and wind, which does not rely on other countries,” said Alexis Abramson, dean of the Columbia University Climate School, who was not involved in the study.
“We’ve really crossed this important threshold that clean energy now can meet rising demand economically and at the same time really help address national security concerns,” she added. “The next challenge is really turning that into a steady decline of fossil fuel use as well. So it’s a great step in the right direction.”
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