Poland is set to hold a presidential runoff election today between two candidates offering starkly different visions for the country’s future.
The winner would succeed Polish President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who is finishing his second and final term. The outcome would determine whether Poland embraces a nationalist populist trajectory or pivots more fully toward liberal, pro-European policies.
An exit poll by Ipsos would be released when polls close today at 9pm local time, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Final results are expected tomorrow.
Photo: Reuters
Whoever wins can be expected to either help or hinder the agenda of the centrist government of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, thanks to the presidential power to veto laws.
UNPREDICTABLE OUTCOME
The vote comes amid heightened regional tensions driven by Russia’s war in neighboring Ukraine, security concerns across Europe and internal debates about the rule of law.
It follows a first round on May 18, in which Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski won more than 31 percent of the vote and Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian, earned nearly 30 percent. Eleven other candidates were eliminated.
Opinion polls showed the two men running neck and neck. Other factors add to the unpredictability. Nawrocki did much better in the first round than surveys had predicted, indicating that his strength was underestimated.
On the other hand, a large numbers of Poles abroad have registered to vote in the second round, which could help Trzaskowski.
THE CANDIDATES
Nawrocki was tapped as by the national conservative Law and Justice party despite a lack of political experience or party membership.
This is seen as acting in his favor, as the party wants to refresh its image before a parliamentary election in 2027.
Nawrocki’s supporters describe him as the embodiment of traditional, patriotic Polish values. They believe US President Donald Trump’s support for him would strengthen Warsaw’s ties with Washington and make the country safer.
Meanwhile, Trzaskowski has been prominent in national politics for years. This is his second presidential bid after narrowly losing to Duda in 2020.
Supporters credit him with modernizing Warsaw through infrastructure, public transit expansion and cultural investments. He is widely seen as pragmatic and focused on strengthening ties with other European nations.
IDEOLOGICAL WAR
Nawrocki’s campaign has echoed themes popular on the US right, including skepticism toward EU bureaucracy and emphasis on Christian identity. His supporters feel that Trzaskowski, with his pro-EU views, would hand over control of key Polish issues to Paris and Berlin.
Many European centrists are rooting for Trzaskowski, seeing in him someone who would defend democracy as it faces pressure from authoritarian forces across the globe. He has also pledged to repair relations with the EU.
Both candidates support continued backing for Ukraine, but to different degrees. Nawrocki believes that Ukraine should never join NATO, while Trzaskowski says Ukraine should be allowed to join one day when the war is over.
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