Recent clashes in Somalia’s semi-autonomous Jubaland region are alarming experts, exposing cracks in the country’s federal system and creating an opening for militant group al-Shabaab to gain ground.
Following years of conflict, Somalia is a loose federation of five semi-autonomous member states — Puntland, Jubaland, Galmudug, Hirshabelle and South West — that maintain often fractious relations with the central government in the capital, Mogadishu.
However, ahead of elections next year, Somalia has sought to assert control over its member states, which security analysts said has created gaps for al-Shabaab infiltration.
Photo: Reuters
Last week, two Somalian soldiers were killed in clashes between pro-government forces and Jubaland loyalists, days after both sides called for mobilization in the area. Five Somalian soldiers had already died last month.
The Horn of Africa nation has battled al-Shabaab since the middle of the 2000s, with its fortunes rising and falling over that time. This year, the group has won back major towns.
“Once the attention shifted from the fight against al-Shabaab to politics, we started seeing losses and setbacks in the battlefield,” said Samira Gaid, a security analyst in the region.
The group is using the power struggle as a “recruitment drive,” Gaid said.
“It really doesn’t favor anyone when these sort of incidents happen,” she said.
The deadly clashes have underscored the weakness of Somalia’s federal government, analysts said.
“There wasn’t enough political agreement at the time of the formation of the Somali[an] federal government in 2012 and that’s why you have this constant struggle and tension within the federal model,” International Crisis Group senior analyst Omar Mahmood said.
Jubaland severed relations with Mogadishu last year after its leader, Ahmed Madobe, a former warlord in power since 2012, was elected for a third term in polls that the central government labelled “unlawful.”
An arrest warrant was issued against Madobe, who is based in the de facto state capital of Kismayo.
“The reason why this is spiking up now is because we are heading into the election,” Mahmood said.
Somalian President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has been pushing for the country to hold its first-ever one-person, one-vote election next year — a move opposed by Madobe.
Jubaland’s Gedo region, where last week’s clashes took place, appears to be critical for the central government.
Madobe and Mohamud “want to exert control over Gedo, which they also can then use to exert control over the election process,” Mahmood said.
Last month, Mohamud appointed Madobe’s former security minister, Abdirashid Hassan Abdinur, known locally as Janan, as the head of security operations in Jubaland.
Janan, seen as an influential power broker in Gedo, has previously been accused by the UN of serious human rights violations.
After last week’s clashes, he announced the takeover of a key border town in Gedo, Beled Hawo, saying a new administration would be formed in the region.
The violence has taken a toll on the population. Since June, clashes in the Gedo region have displaced 38,000 people internally and forced 10,200 across the border to Kenya, official data showed.
Clan politics generally play a key role in Somalia, Jubaland included.
“The clan that resides in Gedo area has never been politically aligned to the leadership of Ahmed Madobe,” Gaid said, as the dominant clan feels marginalized by him.
In the government’s eyes, that divide could be a way to unseat Madobe.
However, the opposition to him is also split and the federal government does not have total support.
Mohamed Jumale, a traditional elder in Jubaland, is convinced that Mogadishu will fail.
“We are hearing that the federal government is trying to annex Gedo from the rest of the Jubaland-administered territories before they can form a loyal administration. It will not work,” he said.
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