One of Singapore’s greatest strengths is its predictability: In a region where coups and economic meltdowns are not uncommon, it has long been a haven of stability for investors and businesses.
However, when Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (李顯龍) almost collapsed during a National Day speech on Sunday, it brought into focus concerns that have been simmering for months about the future of the wealthy city-state.
The economy has lost some of the zest it had under the open trade-oriented model created by Singaporean founding father Lee Kuan Yew (李光耀), whose death last year for many marked the end of an era. Doubts have also started to emerge about Singapore’s position as one of the world’s leading financial capitals.
Photo: Reuters
Singapore is vulnerable to attacks by Muslim militants: Just this month, two Singaporeans were detained before they could join the Islamic State group in Syria, while Indonesian police foiled a plot to attack the island nation with a rocket.
And, now, Lee Hsien Loong’s stumble at the podium has exposed the apparent lack of a chosen successor, a remarkable state of affairs for a country where politics has been carefully managed since independence half a century ago under one powerful party.
Lee Kuan Yew’s successor, Goh Chok Tong (吳作棟), was identified at least five years in advance. Lee Kuan Yew’s son Lee Hsien Loong was groomed to become the next leader long before he took office in 2004.
“Singapore is indeed going through one of the toughest times with the economy faltering and the threat of terrorism,” said Inderjit Singh, a former lawmaker for the People’s Action Party (PAP), which has ruled without interruption since 1965.
“It is a concern that we are quite late in putting in place the fourth-generation leadership,” Singh said.
However, few see Singapore heading into a crisis. In last year’s election — held months after the death of patriarch Lee Kuan Yew — the PAP won almost 70 percent of the popular vote and swept all but six of parliament’s 89 seats.
It was not the ruling party’s highest-ever vote, but it came as a huge relief after the 2011 polls in which the party scored its lowest vote since independence. The vote also belied perceived concern over a widening wealth gap, a high cost of living and a flow of foreign workers, who now account for nearly one-quarter of Singapore’s 5.7 million people.
Doctors say that Lee Hsien Loong, 64, has no serious health concerns.
Still, when he returned to the stage an hour after his turn, the prime minister said: “What just happened makes it even more important” to talk about succession.
He then mentioned Singaporean Minister of Finance Heng Swee Keat (王瑞傑), who Lee Hsien Loong said would soon resume his duties following a stroke earlier this year.
Heng had been touted by local media as a potential successor, although doubts remain about his long-term health.
Gillian Koh (許林珠) — deputy director at the Singapore think tank the Institute of Policy Studies — cited other candidates, including: Chan Chun Sing (陳振聲), a minister in the prime minister’s office; Tan Chuan-Jin (陳川仁), a former army chief and now Singaporean minister for social and family development; Ong Ye Kung (王乙康), acting minister for education and senior minister of state for defence; and Lawrence Wong, the newly appointed second minister of finance.
Other analysts mention combinations of the same names. What qualifies them for this unofficial shortlist is their experience in key roles in finance, education or defense, as well as a track record of community work — much like the prime minister himself.
Another potential successor is Singaporean Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam, some analysts said, though he has repeatedly denied interest in the job.
Tharman is an ethnic Tamil and few believe that Singapore is ready for a prime minister who is not ethnic Chinese.
No matter who the next leader is, the recruiting and promotion system put in place by Lee Kuan Yew for the PAP will prevent radical shifts in policy, said Garry Rodan, director of the Asia Research Institute at Murdoch University.
“No maverick is going to come through this process. It’s incredibly thorough and institutionalized,” Rodan said. “There is less likelihood of any radical shift from any leader in the PAP compared with most other governments anywhere in the world.”
Furthermore, the opposition is widely seen as too weak to dislodge the PAP in the foreseeable future.
Singapore’s political stability is an important factor to investors’ trust in the country.
“A smooth succession and policy framework is particularly credit-relevant for our assessment of the country’s susceptibility to event risk, given that Singapore’s political stability has never been tested through a transition away from the ruling PAP,” Moody’s analyst Anushka Shah said.
With growing use of social media, Lee Hsien Loong’s government has come under more criticism than his father ever allowed, including from his younger sister, who has called his Cabinet “authoritarian.”
Some analysts say an economy growing at only 1 to 2 percent — well below the rates that turned a seedy colonial port into a nation bristling with hundreds of glass-and-steel towers — could increase popular discontent with the ruling party.
Meanwhile, the government announced that former Singaporean president Sellapan Ramanathan died Monday at age 92.
Widely known as S.R. Nathan, the country’s sixth and longest-serving president, who was in office from 1999 to 2011, was hospitalized in critical condition after a stroke on July 31.
It was his second stroke in less than two years.
“The late Mr Nathan passed away peacefully at Singapore General Hospital on Monday,” the prime minister’s office said in a statement.
“He was a warm and approachable president who endeared himself to Singaporeans. I remember him as a man guided by a deep sense of duty to the nation. He stepped up each time duty called. He was a true son of Singapore,” Lee Hsien Loong said on Facebook.
Additional reporting by AP
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