Chinese air force activity around Taiwan has fallen sharply in the past few weeks, with no flights at all in the past week, a sudden drop in what had been daily military maneuvers that could signal Beijing is recalibrating its pressure on Taipei.
China has dispatched 460 military planes — from fighter jets to drones — into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone so far this year, a 46.5 percent drop compared with a year earlier, according to Taiwanese government data compiled by research group Secure Taiwan Associate Corp (STA).
Taiwan last month detected 190 Chinese aircraft, the lowest monthly tally since the Ministry of National Defense began publishing detailed daily figures in 2022.
Photo: AFP
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) might be toning down visible pressure tactics to create a better atmosphere ahead of his anticipated meeting with US President Donald Trump at the end of this month, two Taiwanese officials said.
Facing Trump, “Beijing might be trying to create a false impression: I am peaceful, I am moving toward peace, so you should stop selling weapons to Taiwan,” a senior Taiwanese security official said, requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Neither the Chinese Ministry of National Defense nor its Taiwan Affairs Office responded to requests for comment.
China has not dispatched any military planes near Taiwan since Friday last week, marking an unprecedented six-day lull in such operations that coincided with the war in Iran, STA researcher Tristan Tang (湯廣正) said.
Unlike this extended lull, past pauses were brief, usually tied to typhoons or Chinese holidays.
Another interpretation is China’s military corruption purge.
Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), a research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said the purge could be the “primary reason,” with Chinese forces undergoing changes to their command structure that are likely undermining overall readiness.
A defense official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, suggested Beijing is using the lull to digest lessons from recent large drills.
However, China’s navy and coast guard remain active, the Taiwanese defense ministry said, showing that Beijing had only dialed down the more politically sensitive air activity.
“Just because they’re not coming now doesn’t mean they won’t come back in the future, and we can’t rule out that they may be preparing for an even larger operation,” another senior security official said. “We should not project any change in Beijing’s intentions based solely on a few days of activity.”
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