Chinese air force activity around Taiwan has fallen sharply in the past few weeks, with no flights at all in the past week, a sudden drop in what had been daily military maneuvers that could signal Beijing is recalibrating its pressure on Taipei.
China has dispatched 460 military planes — from fighter jets to drones — into Taiwan's air defense identification zone so far this year, a 46.5 percent drop from a year earlier, government data compiled by research group Secure Taiwan Associate Corporation (STA) showed.
Last month, Taiwan detected 190 such Chinese aircraft, the lowest monthly tally since the Ministry of National Defense began publishing detailed daily figures in 2022.
Photo courtesy of the Ministry of National Defense via EPA-EFE
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) might be toning down visible pressure tactics to create a better atmosphere ahead of his anticipated meeting with US President Donald Trump at the end of the month, two Taiwanese officials said.
Facing Trump, "Beijing might be trying to create a false impression: I am peaceful, I am moving toward peace, so you should stop selling weapons to Taiwan," a senior Taiwan security official said, requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Neither China’s Taiwan Affairs Office nor its Ministry of National Defense responded to requests for comment.
China has not dispatched any military planes near Taiwan since Friday last week, marking an unprecedented six-day lull in such operations that coincided with the war in Iran, STA researcher Tristan Tang (湯廣正) said.
Unlike this extended lull, past pauses were brief, usually tied to typhoons or Chinese holidays.
Another interpretation is China's military corruption purge.
The purge could be the "primary reason," with Chinese forces undergoing changes to their command structure that are likely undermining overall readiness, said Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), a research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
Beijing could be using the lull to digest lessons from recent large drills, said a Taiwanese defense official, also speaking on condition of anonymity.
However, China's navy and coast guard remain active, according to the Ministry of National Defense, showing that Beijing has only dialed down its more politically sensitive air activity.
"Just because they're not coming now doesn't mean they won't come back in the future, and we can't rule out that they may be preparing for an even larger operation," another senior Taiwan security official said. "We should not project any change in Beijing's intentions based solely on a few days of activity."
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