In the event of a cross-Taiwan Strait crisis, China would likely wage an information operation in Japan to make people question why they should “risk their lives for Taiwan,” a Japanese international relations expert said.
Satoru Mori, deputy director of the Keio Center for Strategy at Keio University, made the comments on Monday during a forum on the US-Japan Alliance hosted by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“It’s going to be a pretty potent strategic communication tactic that the Chinese would likely use,” and since Japan is a parliamentary democracy, any loss of public opinion could lead to a change of government, Mori said.
Photo: Yang Ming-chu, Taipei Times
Any such reversal would be a “nightmare scenario” for the Japan-US alliance, as the US would no longer be able to wage effective military operations to defend Taiwan, Mori said.
Seeing Japan opt out of such an effort could also cause Taiwan to “lose faith” and undermine its will to fight, Mori said, adding that China would thus be able to “kill three birds with one stone” by going after Japanese public opinion.
To avoid such a situation, efforts should be taken during peacetime to convince the Japanese public that Taiwan matters very much for Japan’s security, thereby building public resolve to withstand such information operations in the event of a crisis, Mori said.
Motohiro Tsuchiya, a professor at Keio University’s Graduate School of Media and Governance, said it is instructive to look at Taiwan’s elections — including the upcoming local elections in November — to understand how such information operations are waged.
“From my experiences in Taiwan, there are a lot of interference interventions,” although it is not always clear if they are coming from China, from actors within Taiwan, or from other countries, he said.
In some cases, these messages could be easily identified, such as those using simplified Chinese characters, but they could still sway people’s mindset due to their huge volume, Tsuchiya said.
To date, Japan has not faced extensive interference in its elections, Tsuchiya said, adding that that could change if Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi — who has taken a strong stance in support of Taiwan — decides to call elections next month.
According to Reuters, Japanese media reported that Takaichi is considering dissolving the lower house next week and calling snap elections for Feb. 8 to capitalize on her high approval ratings and stabilize her coalition.
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