Chinese vessels flying another nation’s flag could be deployed in “gray zone” operations around Taiwan, a civil preparedness advocate said on Friday.
Taiwan National Security Institute deputy secretary-general Ho Cheng-hui (何澄輝) made the remarks after the Yomiuri Shimbun on Thursday reported on the security risk posed by China’s militarized ferries.
The Japanese newspaper said that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy has enhanced its capability to conduct fast-moving amphibious assaults on Taiwan by growing its civilian fleet of roll-on/roll-off transports.
Photo courtesy of the Coast Guard Administration
This class of vessels was heavily featured in the Chinese military’s drills around Taiwan proper, it said.
Former US Department of Defense senior director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia Tony Hsu (胡振東) in 2024 told an online program that continued reliance on civilian ferries reflected a lack of genuine amphibious assault capabilities on China’s part.
Deploying slow and vulnerable ships in an opposed naval landing would incur heavy losses of troops and equipment, although overwhelming numbers might confound the target identification capabilities of the defenders, he said.
Institute of National Defense and Security Research analyst Chen Chia-sheng (陳嘉生) last month said the PLA could use field modifications to transform civilian vessels into disposable missile platforms.
Ho on Friday said that civilian shipping represents a cheap and expedient option for the PLA to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) target to be ready to invade Taiwan by next year.
However, the low survivability of civilian cargo vessels meant that they could not be deployed effectively without air and sea control, and seizing one or more Taiwanese ports, he said.
Merchant ships refitted to serve as missile platforms should not overly concern Taiwan, because a lack of fire control capabilities makes them relatively easy to defeat after they reveal their position by shooting, he said.
The real threat is the potential use of false-flagged ships in covert operations, which has been showcased by the ongoing Chinese military exercise, he said.
Citing government reports, Ho said the coast guard so far discovered eight Chinese state-owned ships operating in the waters surrounding Taiwan, including seven that requested permission to dock.
Covert deployment of ships could enable the PLA to launch fiber-optic drones, cut undersea cables, or dispatch special operations teams to attack Taiwanese military forces and infrastructure, he said.
Fiber-optic drones use an optical fiber as their teleoperation link and are impervious to jamming.
A multi-layered response is key to dealing with “gray zone” tactics, Ho said.
Effectively countering China’s use of maritime militia forces would require the government to augment the Coast Guard Administration’s capabilities, including aerial drones and uncrewed boats, he said.
In addition, Taipei should study how other countries handle China’s phantom fleet, and conduct joint maritime enforcement operations with the US, Japan and the Philippines, he added.
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