A surge in Chinese maritime military activity across East Asia might be evidence that “hardliners” are gaining ascendancy in Beijing’s leadership, an expert said on Friday.
Shu Hsiao-huang (舒孝煌), a research fellow at the state-run Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said that deployments of Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy and China Coast Guard vessels — with more than 100 ships reported at sea last week — appear to be Beijing’s response to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s public opposition to any use of force by China against Taiwan.
Beijing appears to be using ships and other military assets already taking part in military exercises to intimidate the US, Japan and the Philippines, Shu said.
Photo: Reuters
The three governments in the past few months have showed an unfavorable inclination toward China’s aims in the region, he said.
China signaling its displeasure with warships rather than diplomatic protests, as expected of nations that follow international norms, suggests that “hardliners” have seized the reins in Beijing, he said.
The showy and bombastic threats emanating from Beijing are concerning, as they highlight an increasingly dysfunctional decisionmaking process that deliberately pursues counterproductive courses of action, Shu said.
The Chinese government’s rude and extreme reaction to Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks might alienate neighboring countries and give an inadvertent boost to the credibility of political factions opposed to Beijing, he said.
However, it is possible that the show of force is intended for China’s domestic audience, he added.
The Chinese naval activities appear to be a test of logistics, and command and control capabilities during a large deployment, said Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑), an associate professor of international affairs and strategic studies at Tamkang University.
The absence of the Chinese military’s air and rocket forces made the activity distinct from the Joint Sword and Strait Thunderbolt exercises of previous years, Lin said.
The PLA for the moment is content with a display of its numerical strength at sea and waving the Chinese flag in the Pacific by penetrating the first island chain, he said.
That means the chances of China announcing another Joint Sword-type exercise are not high, as naval demonstrations are a sufficient flex of Beijing’s muscles directed at Japan and the Philippines, he said.
Observers are seeking signs that China’s Liaoning, Shandong and Fujian aircraft carriers are conducting simultaneous exercise in the South China Sea, the East China Sea and the western Pacific, he said.
More attention should be paid to the type of drills China conducts and modernization of its armed forces, rather than focusing on the number of aircraft and ships involved in excursions crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait, Lin said.
Beijing would continue to use its “salami slice” strategy to pressure Taiwan, with military exercises aimed to compressing the buffer space around Taiwan proper, he added.
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