There are four scenarios for how Japan could become involved in the event that China were to attack Taiwan, said Tang Ming-hua (唐明華), a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
For Japan, the possibility of avoiding war entirely while still preserving alliance credibility is becoming increasingly challenging, he said in an article published by the institute.
Tang made the statements after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Nov. 7 said that if China were to use force or impose a blockade that undermines peace in the Taiwan Strait and threatens Japan’s national security, Tokyo could invoke security legislation from 2015 and treat the situation as a “survival-threatening crisis.” This is the first time a Japanese prime minister has publicly elevated the Taiwan issue to the level of an existential threat.
Photo: Bloomberg
Tang said Japan could respond to such a contingency in one of four ways. In the first scenario, Japan could adopt a defensive and restrained posture, not invoking the security law and focusing instead on domestic defense measures such as strengthening surveillance over its southwestern islands, improving missile defense and evacuating Japanese nationals in Taiwan. This approach, reflecting possible Japanese reluctance to enter conflict, could harm trust within the Japan-US alliance.
In the second scenario, Japan could say the situation has significantly impacted it, and order the Japan Self-Defense Forces to provide rear-area logistical support to US forces. This would include access to bases, intelligence sharing, supply and medical support, and sea lines of communication protection. Japan would avoid direct combat, but could still be viewed by China as supporting the US war effort, exposing itself to retaliation.
A third scenario involves Japan declaring a “survival-threatening crisis,” enabling it to exercise collective self-defense under the security law. Japan could intercept Chinese People’s Liberation Army missiles or ships threatening its territory or US bases, escort US vessels through key chokepoints such as the Miyako Strait or Bashi Channel, conduct anti-submarine operations or undertake joint air missions to protect Japanese airspace and alliance assets. Although Tokyo would avoid engaging in direct combat over Taiwan itself, it would in effect be participating in the conflict.
The fourth, and most extreme, scenario sees Japan and the US jointly engaging in full military operations around Taiwan and within the first island chain. This would include long-range strikes, anti-ship missions, attacks on command nodes, joint escort operations for evacuation or supply fleets, and full integration of command-and-control systems. Under this scenario, Japan would become a direct belligerent, marking a profound shift in regional security dynamics.
Tang said that while each scenario carries different strategic costs and political implications, Takaichi’s framing of Taiwan’s security as directly tied to Japan’s national survival significantly increases the likelihood that Tokyo would be drawn into a Taiwan Strait conflict, especially if Beijing miscalculates.
Japan faces a stark dilemma between deterring China through credible military preparedness and avoiding being pulled into a regional war, with the eventual outcome depending on timing, crisis development and political will, he said.
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