A Taiwanese military expert on Wednesday rejected a China studies expert's claim that Beijing could impose a naval blockade on Taiwan by sending a few submarines into waters around the nation, questioning how long such a blockade could be sustained.
Based on impressions from two visits to Taiwan over the past three months, China studies expert Willy Lam (林和立) said at an Oct. 1 symposium in Washington that “all the Chinese need to do is send four or five submarines to impose a naval blockade of the island.”
Lam, a senior fellow at The Jamestown Foundation, speculated that if Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) orders “a big move on Taiwan,” the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would impose an effective naval blockade “which they could do quite easily.”
Photo: Reuters
Speaking at a Taipei seminar held on Wednesday by National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations, Alexander Huang (黃介正) of Tamkang University said that strictly from a military perspective, the central question is how long a submarine blockade could be sustained if attempted.
“A nuclear-powered submarine might be able to stay in position for a long time, but crews still need to eat and sleep, so it cannot remain there indefinitely,” said Huang, an associate professor at the university’s Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies.
“With any blockade, the key question is how long you can sustain it, because it cannot last forever,” he said, in response to a question.
Another factor to consider is “whether those submarines can make it back,” Huang said, adding that other countries’ submarines might block their way to home ports in China.
If it comes to combat, those submarines may not make it back, Huang said, adding that Taiwan “is not without the means to hit back.”
A wargaming expert, Huang said that while Taiwan would be under great pressure in such a scenario, the longer a blockade lasts, the stronger the likelihood of international intervention becomes.
“If the US were to blockade the Strait of Malacca and bar Chinese ships from passing, Yangshan Port could also be struck,” he said, referring to the deep-water port off Shanghai that is an important hub for China’s import and export trade.
Lam’s remarks also drew reactions from Taiwanese officials at home and abroad.
After Lam delivered his remarks at the symposium, he was immediately countered by Representative to the US Alexander Yui (俞大㵢), who also attended the event hosted by the Global Taiwan Institute.
Disagreeing with Lam’s claim that a handful of submarines could blockade Taiwan, Yui said at the time the determination of the Taiwanese people to defend themselves is “pretty strong,” citing the tens of thousands who voluntarily went to Hualien County to assist with cleanup and recovery in areas hit by recent flooding.
Liang Wen-chieh (梁文傑), deputy head and spokesperson of the Mainland Affairs Council, also refuted Lam’s claim at a regular news briefing in Taipei.
“If it were that easy, all our years of force building and readiness would have been for nothing,” Liang said at yesterday's briefing.
“I therefore strongly disagree with his claim,” he added.
A magnitude 6.1 earthquake struck off the coast of Yilan County at 8:39pm tonight, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said, with no immediate reports of damage or injuries. The epicenter was 38.7km east-northeast of Yilan County Hall at a focal depth of 98.3km, the CWA’s Seismological Center said. The quake’s maximum intensity, which gauges the actual physical effect of a seismic event, was a level 4 on Taiwan’s 7-tier intensity scale, the center said. That intensity level was recorded in Yilan County’s Nanao Township (南澳), Hsinchu County’s Guansi Township (關西), Nantou County’s Hehuanshan (合歡山) and Hualien County’s Yanliao (鹽寮). An intensity of 3 was
Instead of focusing solely on the threat of a full-scale military invasion, the US and its allies must prepare for a potential Chinese “quarantine” of Taiwan enforced through customs inspections, Stanford University Hoover fellow Eyck Freymann said in a Foreign Affairs article published on Wednesday. China could use various “gray zone” tactics in “reconfiguring the regional and ultimately the global economic order without a war,” said Freymann, who is also a nonresident research fellow at the US Naval War College. China might seize control of Taiwan’s links to the outside world by requiring all flights and ships entering or leaving Taiwan
The next minimum wage hike is expected to exceed NT$30,000, President William Lai (賴清德) said yesterday during an award ceremony honoring “model workers,” including migrant workers, at the Presidential Office ahead of Workers’ Day today. Lai said he wished to thank the awardees on behalf of the nation and extend his most sincere respect for their hard work, on which Taiwan’s prosperity has been built. Lai specifically thanked 10 migrant workers selected for the award, saying that although they left their home countries to further their own goals, their efforts have benefited Taiwan as well. The nation’s industrial sector and small businesses lay
Quarantine awareness posters at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport have gone viral for their use of wordplay. Issued by the airport branch of the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Agency, the posters feature sniffer dogs making a range of facial expressions, paired with advisory messages built around homophones. “We update the messages for holidays and campaign needs, periodically refreshing materials to attract people’s attention,” quarantine officials said. “The aim is to use the dogs’ appeal to draw focus to quarantine regulations.” A Japanese traveler visiting Taiwan has posted a photo on X of a poster showing a quarantine dog with a
RSS