China’s plan to deploy a new hypersonic ballistic missile at a Chinese People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) base near Taiwan likely targets US airbases and ships in the western Pacific, but it would also present new threats to Taiwan, defense experts said.
The New York Times — citing a US Department of Defense report from last year on China’s military power — on Monday reported in an article titled “The missiles threatening Taiwan” that China has stockpiled 3,500 missiles, 1.5 times more than four years earlier.
Although it is unclear how many of those missiles were targeting Taiwan, the newspaper reported that the PLARF Brigade 616 base in Jiangxi Province has undergone rapid expansion since 2020 and is being prepared to accommodate Dongfeng-17 (DF-17) hypersonic ballistic missiles.
Photo: EPA-EFE / Xinhua News Agency
It cited sources including Derrek Eveleth, a researcher at the Washington-based Center for Naval Analyses think tank.
Taiwanese media asked Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Security Studies Program, to comment on the newspaper report.
China’s hypersonic missiles, including the DF-17, are relatively long-range and therefore likely not designed to hit targets in Taiwan, Heginbotham said.
“If they have the range ascribed to them in the open-source literature, then using them against Taiwan would be a suboptimal use of resources,” he said.
The missiles are more likely to be deployed against US vessels coming to Taiwan’s aid or air bases in the western Pacific were Taiwan and China to go to war, he said.
“To say that it is not designed or optimized to hit targets on Taiwan is not to say that it would never be used against Taiwan, regardless of circumstances,” he added.
For example, if the US did not intervene or China was running low on other types of missiles, it might use the DF-17 against Taiwan, he said, citing Russia’s use of Zircon missiles against targets in Ukraine that were “not anticipated for that system.”
Kao Chih-jung (高志榮), a researcher at the Taipei-based Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said that the DF-17s would likely be used to strike ships and US air bases in the western Pacific, such as the Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Japan.
However, if China’s short-range ballistic missiles, such as the DF-11 and DF-15, fail to yield a satisfactory hit rate in an assault on Taiwan, the DF-17, which relies on thrust vectoring control to evade interception, might be used for that task, Kao said.
China has about 1,000 short-range missiles targeting Taiwan and about 300 launchers, which would allow four waves of attack against Taiwan, he said.
If Taiwan mounted a successful defense against the first four waves, China would likely launch a fifth using DF-17s, he said.
Either scenario would transfer some of the missiles intended for use against the US to an attack against Taiwan, which would be a boost to a US intervention, allowing it to more readily advance its forces toward the Taiwan Strait, he said.
If conflict arises, Taiwan’s military should launch a “deep counterstrike” at China’s missile bases while maintaining its defense posture to counter the PLARF’s missiles, Kao said.
“Otherwise, we are just wasting our air defense missiles,” Kao said.
Taiwan has several types of missiles capable of striking China, including the Ching Tien (擎天, Cloud Peak) supersonic cruise missile, the Hsiung Feng IIE (雄風, Brave Wind) missile and the Hsiung Sheng surface-to-surface cruise missile, and the Wan Chien (萬劍, Thousand Swords) air-to-ground cruise missile, all of which were developed by the government-owned Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology, Kao said.
The institute is already developing a new variant of the Chiang Kung (強弓, Strong Bow) surface-to-air missile unveiled last month at the Taipei Aerospace and Defense Exhibition, he said.
The Chiang Kung can also hit targets in China, he added, citing sources familiar with the matter.
The missile under development is said to be a surface-to-surface ballistic missile that has an estimated range of 1,000km, Kao said.
For Taiwan to mount an effective defense, it also needs to “significantly enlarge” its missile arsenal to boost its self-defense and strike capabilities in the face of the rapid expansion of the PLARF, he added.
Heginbotham said that it is important for Taiwan to diversify its responses to a Chinese military attack.
“Taiwan cannot rely entirely on active defenses, but should also employ dispersion and hardening [of critical military assets], as well as a good mix of weapons,” he said.
Asked about China’s deployment of DF-17 missiles in Jiangxi, Major General Chiao Fu-chun (喬福駿), deputy spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense, said that the ministry is closely monitoring PLARF deployments using its joint intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities.
Chinese spouse and influencer Guan Guan’s (關關) residency permit has been revoked for repeatedly posting pro-China videos that threaten national security, the National Immigration Agency confirmed today. Guan Guan has said many controversial statements in her videos posted to Douyin (抖音), including “the red flag will soon be painted all over Taiwan” and “Taiwan is an inseparable part of China,” and expressing hope for expedited reunification. The agency last year received multiple reports alleging that Guan Guan had advocated for armed reunification. After verifying the reports, the agency last month issued a notice requiring her to appear and explain her actions. Guan
GIVE AND TAKE: Blood demand continues to rise each year, while fewer young donors are available due to the nation’s falling birthrate, a doctor said Blood donors can redeem points earned from donations to obtain limited edition Formosan black bear travel mugs, the Kaohsiung Blood Center said yesterday, as it announced a goal of stocking 20,000 units of blood prior to the Lunar New Year. The last month of the lunar year is National Blood Donation Month, when local centers seek to stockpile blood for use during the Lunar New Year holiday. The blood demand in southern Taiwan — including Tainan and Kaohsiung, as well as Chiayi, Pingtung, Penghu and Taitung counties — is about 2,000 units per day, the center said. The donation campaign aims to boost
The Kaohsiung Tourism Bureau audited six hotels in an effort to prevent price gouging ahead of Korean band BTS’ concert tour in the city scheduled for Nov. 19, 21 and 22 this year. The bureau on Friday said that the audits — conducted in response to allegations of unfair pricing posted on social media — found no wrongdoing. These establishments included the local branches of Chateau de Chine, Hotel Nikko, My Humble House, and Grand Hai Lai, it said, adding that the Consumer Protection Commission would have penalized price gougers had the accusations been substantiated. The bureau said the Tourism Development Act
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) said a magnitude 4.9 earthquake that struck off the coast of eastern Taiwan yesterday was an independent event and part of a stress-adjustment process. The earthquake occurred at 4:47pm, with its epicenter at sea about 45.4km south of Yilan County Hall at a depth of 5.9km, the CWA said. The quake's intensity, which gauges the actual effects of a temblor, was highest in several townships in Yilan and neighboring Hualien County, where it measured 4 on Taiwan's seven-tier intensity scale, the CWA said. Lin Po-yu (林柏佑), a division chief at the CWA's Seismological Center, told a news conference
RSS