Taiwan should continue upgrading and expanding its anti-air defense capabilities to counter and deter China’s military force, Taiwan Thinktank consultant Kao Chih-jung (高志榮) said on Tuesday.
Speaking at a seminar hosted by the think tank, Kao said the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force (PLARF) has six combat missile bases (bases 61 to 66), with each hosting six to eight missile brigades, and three support bases (bases 67 to 69) that host a total of 47 brigade-level units.
Equipped with short, medium and long-range ballistic missiles as well as land cruise missiles, the PLARF is tasked with launching missile strikes against airfields, bunkers, jets or ships of the US or its allies operating in the Indo-Pacific region, he said.
Photo: Aaron Tu, Taipei Times
Kao estimated that the PLARF has more than 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles and about 2,700 other types of ballistic missiles.
About one-third, or 900, of the Chinese arsenal are short-range ballistic missiles, such as the Dong Feng (DF)-11, DF-15 and DF-16, that are aimed at Taiwan, he said, adding that most of them are housed in bases 61 and 63, under the command of six short-term ballistic missile brigades.
While short-range ballistic missiles form the brunt of the Chinese missile arsenal against Taiwan, other types can also be used when needed, Kao said.
Commenting on the Chinese capability to strike Taiwanese air bases, Kao said that for the PLARF to completely paralyze Taiwan’s capabilities to launch aircraft, it would need to sever the two main runways at Taiwan’s military airfields into sections that are less than 3,000ft (914m).
To accomplish this, the PLARF would need to launch about 500 ballistic missiles, and a supplement of 1,080 PHL-191 rockets, attack Hsinchu Air Base, Taichung’s Ching Chuan Kang (清泉崗) Air Base, Chiayi Air Base, Tainan Air Base and Penghu Air Base, Kao said.
Moreover, China would need to fire 288 ballistic missiles within two hours to overwhelm Taiwan’s air defense systems, he said, adding that China could employ long-range rocket strikes against outlying military garrisons, such as Dongyin Island (東引).
Taiwan has 21 sets of long-range anti-air systems, and if China wants to fully overload Taiwan’s air defenses, it would have to launch additional CJ-10 cruise missiles, as well as send its planes to fire long-range missiles, he said.
In total, China would need to launch more than 800 ballistic missiles against Taiwan in the first wave, he said.
Failing that, China would need to launch a second barrage within half an hour to continue the attack, he said.
Such an attack would severely strain the PLARF’s reserves, Kao said.
Taiwan should continue to upgrade its extended-range Hsiung Feng II-E and Tien Kung missiles, he said, suggesting that the government continue purchasing newer versions of the Patriot-III missiles to deter the Chinese from bombarding Taiwan into submission.
Citing public information, Kao said that Taiwan’s HF-IIE missiles are based in Taoyuan’s Yangmei (楊梅), Lujhu (蘆竹) and Taishan (泰山) districts, as well as New Taipei City’s Sansia District (三峽), suggesting that the Chinese might target these four districts.
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