A report released yesterday by US think tank Defense Priorities called on the US to withdraw all 500 US military training personnel currently stationed in Taiwan to avoid appearing “provocative” to China and contravening “past commitments not to base US forces on the island.”
“If training is truly needed, it can be provided in the [US],” it said.
Ahead of the US’ National Defense Strategy (NDS) 2025 draft, set to be released Aug. 31, the report suggested a strategic re-posturing that would remove 22,000 US military personnel from the Asia-Pacific region.
Photo: CNA
Titled “Aligning global military posture with U.S. interests," the report suggests shifting US operations from the first island chain to the second, recommending relocations to Guam and considering a shift to Palau and the Marshall Islands.
The 28-page report was authored by Dan Caldwell, former senior advisor to US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth before his suspension in April, and director of military analysis at US think tank Defense Priorities Jennifer Kavanagh.
The report states that the US should seek to establish “regional balancing,” as opposed to “regional dominance,” adding that Taiwan does not require direct US military defense as “the tiny island would not dramatically shift the balance of power.”
It stated that Taiwan has not yet invested enough in its own defense spending and the [US] has been “too willing to carry the additional burden.”
“Taiwan, though not an official US ally, has... come to assume that support from the [US] in the event the island is attacked by China is more or less assured,” it added.
The report has led to debate on social media platform X, with Michael Sobolik, a former legislative assistant in the US Senate, saying the report’s “analysis on Taiwan is just wrong.”
“Washington never fully committed to withdraw US forces from Taiwan without preconditions,” he said, adding that any withdrawal is “contingent on cross-strait relations,” according to the 1972 Communique.
Moreover, according to the Taiwan Relations Act, the US must provide adequate defense articles and defense services to enable Taiwan to maintain sufficient self-defense capabilities, Sobolik said.
Sobolik is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and was previously a senior fellow in Indo-Pacific studies at the American Foreign Policy Council.
The report also recommended reducing the number of US forces by half in South Korea, cutting personnel in Okinawa, transferring troops to Guam and further north in Japan, and refraining from sending any additional systems to the Philippines.
It further argued that the US should learn from mistakes made in Europe, where “constant revisions to US commitments" made to Russia that it would not expand NATO or NATO forces along Russia’s border “contributed to the current war in Ukraine.”
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