Countries that would get involved in a Taiwan-China conflict should take steps to counter Beijing’s propaganda which says that China would not be defeated, a US military official wrote in a research paper.
Chinese propaganda on social media, along with the expansion of its military, is intended to convey the message to countries friendly to Taiwan that they could not defeat China in a conflict, and therefore should not become involved, US Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel Brian Kerg wrote.
Kerg, who wrote the paper for the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security where he is a research fellow, said that China observers should see Beijing’s “Joint Sword-2024A” military exercises held last month from that perspective.
Photo courtesy of the Ministry of National Defense
China would have policymakers in the US and elsewhere believe that resistance to a Chinese occupation of Taiwan would be futile, and therefore they should seek to encourage Taiwan to accept “peaceful unification,” he said.
Analysis of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army shows that although China is a military threat, it is not as big of a threat as Beijing would have people believe through its propaganda, he said.
However, if Beijing influence campaigns helps to reinforce beliefs about its power, then China would achieve its aims without the need to engage in military conflict, he said.
To prevent that from happening, policymakers and analysts should understand the nature and depth of Beijing’s influence campaign, and be aware of its relative vulnerability in the event of an attempted invasion of Taiwan, he said.
Policymakers should also work to dispel misconceptions about the strength of China’s military power, he said.
Although Beijing likely has the air and sea capabilities to blockade Taiwan, maintaining the blockade might also be strategically detrimental to Beijing and would damage China’s economy, he said, adding that a complete and long-term blockade would put great pressure on China’s military.
An amphibious assault on Taiwan would be larger in scale and more complex than the Normandy landings during World War II, and would require joint planning and coordination on a level that the various branches of the People’s Liberation Army lack the capability for, he said.
Countering China’s narrative must be pre-emptive, and policymakers must emphasize China’s vulnerabilities, so as to strengthen public support for assisting Taiwan’s defense, he said.
The resilience of US alliances and partnerships against Chinese aggression must be demonstrated, as well as the efforts to improve the effectiveness of Taiwan’s overall defense, he added.
The Taiwanese government should also make efforts to protect its public from the influence of disinformation, for example by teaching media literacy skills in schools, he said.
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