Taiwan must enhance asymmetric warfare capabilities, raise its military budget and focus on acquiring the kinds of weapons truly needed for fighting a large-scale war with China to survive the shifting balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, US experts said.
In an article published in Foreign Policy on Monday last week, Rand Corporation analysts Raymond Kuo, Michael Hunzeker and Mark Christopher called on Washington to recalibrate its approach to Taiwan as President William Lai (賴清德) took office.
Washington’s policy stance on the Taiwan Strait formerly emphasized restraining the martial law regime in Taiwan from making reckless decisions, while paying less attention to deterring Beijing, as the US military enjoyed a marked superiority and was sure to defeat Chinese forces should a conflict break out, they said.
Photo: CNA
The situation has changed, as Taiwan is now a mature democracy whose government bows to the wishes of a public that is keenly aware of the risks posed by a war with China, they said.
China’s military power has increased, with Beijing spending almost as much on defense as Washington and building the world’s largest navy, even as the number of US warships is projected to fall, they said.
“It is time for Washington to treat Taiwan like a serious partner rather than engaging in symbolic gestures that do nothing for its defense,” they said.
Taiwan should be held to the same standards by the US as those of a respected partner, they said.
This means Washington should call out the numerous flaws in Taiwan’s military posture, including inadequate defense spending, little training for ground troops and wasting limited funds on expensive platforms ill-suited for defending the nation in a large-scale war, they said.
“The US must make clear that Taipei needs to play a meaningful role in its own defense [and] stop applauding perfunctory attempts at increasing Taiwan’s defense spending and implementing defense reform,” they said.
The authors said that Washington should pressure Taiwan to “adopt a genuinely asymmetric defense posture, revitalize training for ground and reserve units, and radically upgrade its civil defense preparations.”
Taipei would have to increase its defense budget to far more than the 2.6 percent of GDP it plans to spend this year to make good for years of neglect in national defense and keep pace with China’s rapidly growing capabilities, they said.
They urged US policymakers to ensure that the US arms manufacturers prioritize their contracts with Taiwan over other foreign nations to clear the US$19 billion in backlogged weapon systems and equipment purchased by Taiwan, so that they could be delivered as soon as possible.
“Washington should be willing to hold Taipei to account by making future foreign military financing and sales deals conditional on verified progress toward these goals,” they said.
Additionally, the US should support the development of Taiwan’s defense industrial base with coproduction and technology transfers to help it acquire truly urgently needed materiel: spare parts, ammunition, anti-air, anti-tank and anti-ship missiles, and drones, they said.
“Washington should also make clear that it will not support Taiwan’s continued pursuit of capabilities that are ill-suited for defending against a full-scale attack,” they said, adding that the Ministry of National Defense “spends far too much money” on tanks, frigates, amphibious assault ships and submarines.
These expensive platforms are too small in numbers and most are “vulnerable to being destroyed by a qualitatively and quantitatively superior PLA in the earliest stages of a war,” they warned.
“Lai’s inauguration offers a logical turning point in the United States-Taiwan relationship,” they said. “Washington should use this moment to demonstrate a seriousness of purpose that has thus far been lacking.”
The US plans to deploy thousands of drones in the Taiwan Strait in an operation called “Hellscape” to ensure that any attempt by China to invade Taiwan does not succeed, US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo told the Washington Post. In an article published on Monday, columnist Josh Rogin quoted Paparo as saying from the sidelines of the recent Shangri-La Dialogue defense forum in Singapore that the “Hellscape” strategy would involve deploying thousands of uncrewed submarines, surface vessels and aerial vehicles around Taiwan to buy the nation, Washington and its partners time to assemble a response. The plan was devised to deter
CHINESE THREAT: Twenty-two military aircraft and vessels were detected around Taiwan over 24 hours, including a drone that flew as close as 80km to Oluanpi China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) yesterday said that the Chinese man who drove a motorboat into a strategic river mouth in Taiwan on Sunday was acting on his own and would be punished upon his return to China. However, the National Security Bureau said it would not exclude any possibilities regarding the man’s motivations, including the Chinese government’s involvement. The man has been identified as a 60-year-old former Chinese navy captain surnamed Ruan (阮). Coast guard personnel on Sunday arrested Ruan in New Taipei City’s Tamsui District (淡水) after his boat entered Tamsui River (淡水河). The boat was detected off the coast of
INSECURITY: The Financial Times yesterday reported that in a EU-China meeting Xi said he would not ‘take the bait’ from the US Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that the US is luring China into a military conflict over Taiwan, the Financial Times cited a source as saying. Xi told Von der Leyen that the US was “trying to provoke Beijing by providing weapons to Taiwan,” but he would “not take the bait,” the Financial Times reported yesterday, The remarks were made during a meeting between Xi and Von der Leyen in April last year, it said. The report also quoted Center for Strategic and International Studies Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette as
SHIN KONG SHENANIGANS: Eugene Wu is the father of Cynthia Wu, who was the TPP’s vice presidential candidate alongside Chairman Ko-Wen-je in January’s election Former Shin Kong Life Insurance Co chairman Eugene Wu (吳東進) and several other company executives are being investigated for alleged embezzlement and fraud resulting in corporate financial losses of about NT$150 million (US$4.63 million), New Taipei City prosecutors said yesterday. After being summoned to the New Taipei District Prosecutors’ Office for questioning, Wu was listed as among 17 suspects facing charges of aggravated breach of trust, embezzlement and breaches of the Insurance Act (保險法). Wu was released on bail of NT$100 million yesterday. The case has received much attention with Eugene Wu being the eldest son of Wu Ho-su (吳火獅), who founded Shin