China attempting to blockade Taiwan would be a mistake for Beijing, as US-led coalition forces would be able to circumvent it, a former US Department of Defense official said on Friday.
Former US Department of Defense senior director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia Tony Hu (胡振東) said in a media interview that the perception that China could cause Taiwan to collapse by blockading it for three weeks did not reflect reality.
“First, they can’t blockade Taiwan for three weeks,” Hu said in response to a question of how coalition forces would react if Chinese warships and planes surrounded Taiwan to prevent foreign military assistance.
Photo: Reuters
If China conducted a blockade without firing weapons it would still be an act of war under international law and “coalition forces could conduct anti-blockade operations by escorting supplies into Taiwan,” he said.
It would also not make sense for Beijing to use the tactic if its goal is to take Taiwan, he said.
“China hopes to take Taiwan in a quick victory,” and “a blockade is not going to give them a quick victory,” Hu said.
“If China does a blockade, it would give coalition forces so much time to build up and to move forces forward that the chance of them ever winning a conflict with Taiwan would be nil,” he said.
Hu also said that the current lack of joint military exercises between Taiwan and the US is a “hindrance” for Taiwan in preparing for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
He said he hoped that this would soon change, given provisions passed by the US Congress last year and in 2021 that called for Taiwan-US joint military training.
Even without joint exercises, Taiwan’s military is moving in the right direction by pursuing a joint C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) platform that is also used by the US military, which would improve the interoperability between the two forces and facilitate joint training, Hu said.
On countering China’s “gray zone” activities — an extension of the Chinese military short of outright military engagement that includes Chinese maritime militias harassing the Japan Coast Guard and chasing Philippine fishing boats away from their fishing grounds — he called for world governments to define who should be considered “combatants” and who should be considered “noncombatants,” a line that China has deliberately blurred.
For example, entities operating under the command of a semi-military organization such as the China Coast Guard should be classified as combatants and responded to accordingly, he said.
Chinese civilian hackers commissioned by Beijing to attack other countries’ financial systems or Internet infrastructure should be regarded and dealt with as combatants, he added.
The world needs to redefine the gray areas that China has been exploiting to gain an advantage over the rest of the world, including the information warfare that it is waging by planting disinformation in the media of other countries, he said.
ANOTHER EMERGES: The CWA yesterday said this year’s fourth storm of the typhoon season had formed in the South China Sea, but was not expected to affect Taiwan Tropical Storm Gaemi has intensified slightly as it heads toward Taiwan, where it is expected to affect the country in the coming days, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. As of 8am yesterday, the 120km-radius storm was 800km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost tip, moving at 9kph northwest, the agency said. A sea warning for Gaemi could be issued tonight at the earliest, it said, adding that the storm is projected to be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday. Gaemi’s potential effect on Taiwan remains unclear, as that would depend on its direction, radius and intensity, forecasters said. Former Weather Forecast
As COVID-19 cases in Japan have been increasing for 10 consecutive weeks, people should get vaccinated before visiting the nation, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said. The centers reported 773 hospitalizations and 124 deaths related to COVID-19 in Taiwan last week. CDC Epidemic Intelligence Center Director Guo Hung-wei (郭宏偉) on Tuesday said the number of weekly COVID-19 cases reported in Japan has been increasing since mid-May and surpassed 55,000 cases from July 8 to July 14. The average number of COVID-19 patients at Japan’s healthcare facilities that week was also 1.39 times that of the week before and KP.3 is the dominant
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) working group for Taiwan-related policies is likely to be upgraded to a committee-level body, a report commissioned by the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said. As Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is increasingly likely to upgrade the CCP’s Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, Taiwanese authorities should prepare by researching Xi and the CCP, the report said. At the third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP, which ended on Thursday last week, the party set a target of 2029 for the completion of some tasks, meaning that Xi is likely preparing to
US-CHINA TRADE DISPUTE: Despite Beijing’s offer of preferential treatment, the lure of China has dimmed as Taiwanese and international investors move out Japan and the US have become the favored destinations for Taiwanese graduates as China’s attraction has waned over the years, the Ministry of Labor said. According to the ministry’s latest income and employment advisory published this month, 3,215 Taiwanese university graduates from the class of 2020 went to Japan, surpassing for the first time the 2,881 graduates who went to China. A total of 2,300 graduates from the class of 2021 went to the US, compared with the 2,262 who went to China, the document showed. The trend continued for the class of 2023, of whom 1,460 went to Japan, 1,334 went to