Thu, Nov 16, 2000 page3

• Former US official sees no changes in policy

  While it is still unclear who will become the next US president, former senior director of the National Security Council, Kenneth Lieberthal, told 'Taipei Times' staff reporter Nadia Tsao in an exclusive interview that either Covernor Bush or Vice President Al Gore would be fine for Taiwan. A renowned sinologist from the University of Michigan, Lieberthal joined the Clinton administration in August 1998 and left the government last summer to take up a post at a Washington DC think tank, the Brookings Institute, as a visiting scholar

  • By Nadia Tsao / STAFF REPORTER IN WASHINGTON
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  Taipei Times: Many observers believe that if Gore becomes the next US president, his administration will basically follow current China policy. Do you agree with that assumption?

  Lieberthal: We recognize the PRC as the sole legal government of China, that is America's official diplomatic position. We have never recognized ambiguity on that. The Shanghai Communique indicates that we acknowledge China's claim that all Chinese on both sides of Taiwan Strait recognize there is "one China."

  I have never thought that there was strategic ambiguity in America's China policy. That term was developed by people who wanted a clearer statement of the condition under which the US would become directly involved in any cross-strait conflict, but we have had a longstanding policy even before the Clinton administration. We highly value a peaceful approach to resolving the cross-strait debate, so if China should use force without being triggered by some remarkable provocation, China cannot assume safely that the US will not become militarily involved. At the same time, because we have a "one China" policy and we seek peaceful resolution on this issue, if Taiwan should unilaterally declare independence, Taiwan cannot assume that the US will recognize its independence and come to their support. I think this is quite clear.

  TT: Governor Bush said in a recent interview that he hoped Taiwan would not declare independence. But some of his advisors said that Bush would review and possibly change the "three no's."

  Lieberthal: President Clinton said the same thing about Taiwan independence. I think our fundamental policy toward China and Taiwan is bipartisan.

  In each party, there are people within the margins, but the center remains very consistent over a long period of time. But I have not heard anything from Bush's advisors on a possible change of the "three no's." I have not seen evidence that Governor Bush disagrees with Vice President Gore in any fundamental fashion. And we do not know in each party who will be the major player in regional policy, so it is too early to tell.

  According to my experience in the Clinton administration, an issue as fundamental as the "three no's" policy will require a presidential decision. I have not seen evidence that Governor Bush would change the policy that his father adhered to. I think there will be great caution to change any of that.

  There have been some allegations that when President Clinton articulated those "three no's" in Shanghai that he had changed our long-standing policy. I looked back over every detail and the reality is that he didn't change a thing. The "three no's" was articulated by Nixon when he went to China in 1972 and has been reiterated by every president since.

  But he is the first person to say those together in public in China. You can say that's a matter of body language, but as for the substance of American policy, there has been no change.

  In fact, when I look back carefully on those documents, from Taiwan's perspective, Taiwan would feel least comfortable with Ronald Reagan, as he actually went farther than anyone else went [in the Shanghai Communique]. I am not against anything particular about Reagan, but I just want to point out that this is not a partisan issue. This is an issue of US interests and what we feel about the people in that region. And fundamentally that is to avoid military conflict, and the "three no's" serve that aim as well.

  TT: But on the other hand, President Clinton was the first US leader to speak publicly that any final resolution of the cross-strait problem must have the consent of the people of Taiwan.

  Lieberthal: Taiwan completed the process of democratization in 1997 during the Clinton administration, although that process began in the 1980s. What he said is that any final agreement would have to have the consent of the people of Taiwan. That simply stated is democracy. It is not a suggestion of support for a referendum or anything like that.

  TT: There is no objection in Taiwan to President Clinton's acknowledgement that Taiwan has become a democratic country. Can we assume that his intended audience is actually Beijing?

  Lieberthal: Beijing's leaders totally accept the fact that Taiwan has become a democracy, but they do not fully understand it. I have not had any conversations with anyone from China to suggest that they are seeking to make Taiwan anything other than a democratic system. But I do think that many of them do not know what democracy is and how it functions.

  TT: Is that one of the major reasons why China tried to intimidate voters during the election in Taiwan?

  Lieberthal: Yes, I think so. They try to change the votes and you can see each time they try to change the vote, it backfires. They just increase what they want to decrease. They highlight that they do not understand the nature of politics in Taiwan, but that's very different than saying they want to change the nature of politics in Taiwan. There is only one outcome they fear, which is independence.

  TT: During your service in the NSC, former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) announced Taiwan's "special state-to-state relations" and China released its controversial White Paper. Both incidents raised tension in the Taiwan Strait. Can you tell us how the US government handled these crises?

  Lieberthal: I agree that both of those created problems. What we tried to do is that for each incident, we went back to fundamentals. We remind everyone of the importance of reducing cross-strait tension and establishing an effective dialogue because there is no military solution to this problem.

  Our judgment is that China would use military force because they feel they do not have any other choice. We have consistently sought to encourage Taiwan and China to talk to see whether they can find a way to resolve the issue. It is always presumed that the solution has to be acceptable to Taiwan since you can't use force to impose it, and the only solution acceptable to people in Taiwan is to maintain their democratic system and freedom.

  TT: Is it true that China was planning to take an offshore island last year?

  Lieberthal: I can say that we do not have any specific knowledge that the Chinese planned to take an offshore island. It is logical that when cross-strait tensions are raised, one of the reasonable options for China would be to seize one of the offshore islands, so we have to think about how we should react to that, and I believe that Taiwan's military was thinking about that too.

  TT: President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) mentioned the "five no's" in his inauguration speech, including not declaring independence. Is it fair to say that the US has got its message through?

  Lieberthal: We used to have a lot of contact with then-president Lee and you have to have contact with leaders in Taiwan. I am confident that President Chen is not someone that takes the script handed to him by the American side and reads it. It is not his style.

  The whole purpose of communication is so that someone understands better than your own analysis what the situation is. It is not true that we dictated what President Chen said in his inauguration speech, that is absurd.

  To be continued tomorrow
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