China’s Tiangong-1 space station is predicted to fall to Earth this year. According to analysis by the European Space Agency (ESA), the estimated break-up zone will include Taiwan. The National Space Organization (NSPO) on Tuesday confirmed it has already started running trajectory modeling software and will use the precise calculations to determine the exact re-entry location of the space station.
China, which has already terminated its data link with Tiangong-1, has previously said it expects the space station will fall back down to Earth sometime this year, while according to the latest information released by the ESA, the re-entry corridor for any debris from Tiangong-1 will be below 43 degrees north latitude or above 43 degrees south latitude: This area includes Taiwan, New York and Tokyo.
According to NSPO deputy director Yu Hsien-cheng, any satellites for which communication has been lost, or which it is impossible to reestablish control over, are classified as space debris and will continue to move on their original orbits while slowly falling back down to Earth. However, Yu says that the time this will take is uncertain: It could take a long time, or a relatively short time. As for Taiwan, its Formosat-3 and Formosat-5 satellites are currently still in service, while Formosat-1 and Formosat-2 have already been decommissioned. Of the four satellites, Formosat-1, which was decommissioned in 2004, is still orbiting in space and has yet to fall back to Earth.
Photo: Screengrab
照片：截圖
Yu says that the majority of Taiwan’s satellites are fairly lightweight and will therefore burn up as they re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere. However, China’s Tiangong-1 space station weighs several metric tonnes and, after passing through the Earth’s atmosphere, may not completely burn up, with the danger of some fragments of debris falling to Earth. Yu says it will be extremely difficult to predict the volume, size and location of any falling debris. As such, at this stage all countries are monitoring the situation and the NSPO is using computer modeling software to continue to obtain the latest information on Tiangong-1. If the re-entry corridor is confirmed as extending to Taiwan, the NSPO will be able to react and manage the situation, says Yu.
(CNA, translated by Edward Jones)
中國太空站「天宮一號」預計今年將墜入地球。根據歐洲太空總署分析，預期的碎片落點範圍將包含台灣。國家太空中心週二證實，已啟動軌道模擬軟體，將會透過精密計算，以掌握太空站的確切落點。
中國日前已終止與太空站「天宮一號」之間的數據連結，並表示太空站預計將於今年墜入地球，而根據歐洲太空總署日前發布的資訊，「天宮一號」殘骸的落點範圍將落在南緯四十三度至北緯四十三度之間，其中包含台灣、紐約、東京等地。
國家太空中心副主任余憲政指出，失去聯繫或無法再掌握的衛星會被歸類為「太空垃圾」，將持續在原有軌道運行，並慢慢墜落地球，但時間不一定，可能很長可能很短。以台灣來說，目前福爾摩沙衛星三號、五號還在服役中，而福衛一號，福衛二號已經除役，其中，福衛一號於二○○四年除役後，至今還在太空中，尚未墜落。
余憲政表示，台灣的衛星大多重量不重，所以墜落時經過大氣層就會燒毀。然而，中國的天宮一號重達數噸，通過大氣層後，不但恐無法完全燒毀，還會裂成碎片墜落地面，很難準確預測碎片數量、大小及位置。因此，現階段各國都在關注此情況，國家太空中心則透過電腦模擬軟體運作，持續掌握天宮一號的最新資訊，以確保碎片落點擴及台灣時，能立即反應處理。
(中央社)
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