China’s military drills around Taiwan this week signaled potential strategies to cut the nation off from energy supplies and foreign military assistance, a US think tank report said.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted what it called “Justice Mission 2025” exercises from Monday to Tuesday in five maritime zones and airspace around Taiwan, calling them a warning to “Taiwanese independence” forces.
In a report released on Wednesday, the Institute for the Study of War said the exercises effectively simulated blocking shipping routes to major port cities, including Kaohsiung, Keelung and Hualien.
Photo: Taiwan Coast Guard, AFP
Taiwan would be highly vulnerable under such a blockade, because it relies “overwhelmingly” on energy imports, the institute said.
About 96 percent of Taiwan’s energy was imported in 2024, Energy Administration data showed.
The drills also featured China Coast Guard vessels operating alongside PLA Navy ships, reflecting Beijing’s strategy of combining civilian law enforcement forces with military assets during a blockade, the institute said.
China has used similar tactics in the South China Sea, with coast guard ships confronting foreign vessels directly while naval forces maintain an outer security perimeter, it added.
In the event of a Taiwan blockade, the China Coast Guard would likely intercept Taiwanese commercial and government vessels, while the PLA Navy would seek to deter foreign military intervention, the report said.
The deployment of precision-strike, anti-submarine and anti-ship weapons also suggested that the PLA might have been practicing countering US submarines and surface ships attempting to breach a blockade, it said.
Additionally, the drills completely disregarded prohibited and restricted waters, the institute said.
Not only did eight Chinese coast guard vessels enter the contiguous zone surrounding Taiwan proper, breaching the final buffer zone of Taiwan’s sovereign territory, but several ships also approached as close as 1.6 nautical miles (3km) off Kinmen County’s islands of Wuchiu (烏坵) and 1.3 nautical miles (2.4km) off Matsu (馬祖), it added.
Although the Chinese Communist Party has sought to slowly advance this slicing tactic, Taiwan and the US should not be deterred by such exercises, the report said.
The institute recommended that military planners in Taiwan and the US use the blockade drills to piece together a complete picture of the PLA’s plans for an attack on Taiwan, particularly the handoff and division of roles between the China Coast Guard and its navy.
If China is allowed to successfully deter US political and military support for Taiwan through such exercises, it would only embolden Beijing to pursue even greater acts of aggression, the report said.
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