A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would severely threaten the national security of the US, Japan, the Philippines and other nations, while global economic losses could reach US$10 trillion, National Security Council Deputy Secretary-General Lin Fei-fan (林飛帆) wrote in an article published yesterday in Foreign Affairs.
“The future of Taiwan is not merely a regional concern; it is a test of whether the international order can withstand the pressure of authoritarian expansionism,” Lin wrote in the article titled “Taiwan’s Plan for Peace Through Strength — How Investments in Resilience Can Deter Beijing.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) intent to take Taiwan by force and become the Indo-Pacific hegemon has been clear since he came to power in 2012, Lin wrote, citing China’s military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, aerial incursions of Taiwanese airspace and disinformation campaigns as part of its efforts to bring about the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
Photo: Chang Chia-ming, Taipei Times
“Beijing’s campaign is designed not simply to intimidate, but to erode Taiwan’s confidence and capacity to resist,” he said.
Taipei’s leaders have repeatedly warned partners and allies that Beijing’s ambitions extend beyond Taiwan, and that China and its allies seek to reshape the global order, he said.
“Should Taipei fall to Beijing, the resulting power shift could fundamentally alter the global order. Strategically, China would gain a forward operating base in the western Pacific, threatening several vital sea-lanes and undermining the US’ ability to meet security commitments to its Indo-Pacific partners and allies,” he said.
“The survival of a small democracy up against a powerful authoritarian adversary depends on preparations made long before the first shot is fired,” Lin said.
The administration of former president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) pledged US$18.5 billion over 10 years to increase civil defense capabilities and bolster infrastructure, laying the foundation for a much more structured whole-of-society resilience campaign under President William Lai (賴清德), he said.
The efforts go a long way toward ensuring that Taiwan is developing the mindset that surrender is never an option — a model also present in Ukraine, Israel and Finland, he said.
Public support is key to achieving national resilience, and the opposition parties’ claims that arms purchases only antagonize Beijing are wrong, he said.
Taiwan has little time to waste as authoritarian aggressors are seeking to change the world order, Lin said.
“Many of Taiwan’s international partners, including the United States, are also engaging across Taipei’s political lines to illustrate the importance and urgency of such preparations,” he said.
Taiwan producing the majority of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, and being a part of a critical hub for global trade, means that any disruption to trade or manufacturing in the region would “reverberate across global markets, crippling industries from consumer electronics to automotive manufacturing and even defense systems,” Lin said.
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