China is unlikely to attempt an invasion of Taiwan, as defeat would mean the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party, a former Japanese defense official said on Sunday.
China is also facing food security problems and its military strength remains insufficient for an invasion of Taiwan, Tokuichiro Tamazawa, who formerly served as director-general of the Japan Defense Agency, said during a speech at an event held by the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei.
In a Facebook post, political commentator Akio Yaita quoted 85-year-old Tamazawa as saying that this week’s visit to Taiwan was aimed at “uniting Taiwanese in the face of Chinese projections of strength.”
Photo: Lu Yi-hsuan, Taipei Times
If Taiwanese show determination to defend themselves, democracies worldwide would come to their aid, Tamazawa was quoted as saying.
Tamazawa said that as China imports 5 percent of its food, and since its Belt and Road Initiative has failed to boost its food security as Beijing had hoped, 70 million Chinese face food security problems.
Those food imports are also being threatened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as China previously had obtained 27 percent of its imported grains from the two nations, he said.
The problem is exacerbated by the fact that 60 percent of China’s population eats pork and 1kg of pork requires 30kg of grain to produce, he said, adding that China is also struggling to catch enough fish to meet demand, especially as Chinese fishers are banned from fishing within 200 nautical miles (370km) of Japanese waters.
“Launching a war requires an abundant food supply. If China were to start a war now, it would immediately face food shortages,” Tamazawa said. “You can’t fight a war on an empty stomach.”
He said that the US invasion of Japan in World War II could be used as a reference for how an attempted invasion of Taiwan might unfold.
“The US military had roughly 700,000 troops, 30 aircraft carriers and 300 warships when it initially attempted to take Kyushu, which had a garrison of 200,000 troops,” he said. “Despite its greater numbers, the US was unable to take Kyushu at that time.”
China would need at least 1.3 million to 1.6 million troops to invade Taiwan and it is currently not capable of transporting that number to Taiwan in the timeframe required, he said.
Beijing realizes that an invasion would fail, which is the reason it uses aggressive cognitive warfare tactics against Taiwan, Tamazawa said.
SECURITY: As China is ‘reshaping’ Hong Kong’s population, Taiwan must raise the eligibility threshold for applications from Hong Kongers, Chiu Chui-cheng said When Hong Kong and Macau citizens apply for residency in Taiwan, it would be under a new category that includes a “national security observation period,” Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Minister Chiu Chui-cheng (邱垂正) said yesterday. President William Lai (賴清德) on March 13 announced 17 strategies to counter China’s aggression toward Taiwan, including incorporating national security considerations into the review process for residency applications from Hong Kong and Macau citizens. The situation in Hong Kong is constantly changing, Chiu said to media yesterday on the sidelines of the Taipei Technology Run hosted by the Taipei Neihu Technology Park Development Association. With
CARROT AND STICK: While unrelenting in its military threats, China attracted nearly 40,000 Taiwanese to over 400 business events last year Nearly 40,000 Taiwanese last year joined industry events in China, such as conferences and trade fairs, supported by the Chinese government, a study showed yesterday, as Beijing ramps up a charm offensive toward Taipei alongside military pressure. China has long taken a carrot-and-stick approach to Taiwan, threatening it with the prospect of military action while reaching out to those it believes are amenable to Beijing’s point of view. Taiwanese security officials are wary of what they see as Beijing’s influence campaigns to sway public opinion after Taipei and Beijing gradually resumed travel links halted by the COVID-19 pandemic, but the scale of
A US Marine Corps regiment equipped with Naval Strike Missiles (NSM) is set to participate in the upcoming Balikatan 25 exercise in the Luzon Strait, marking the system’s first-ever deployment in the Philippines. US and Philippine officials have separately confirmed that the Navy Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) — the mobile launch platform for the Naval Strike Missile — would take part in the joint exercise. The missiles are being deployed to “a strategic first island chain chokepoint” in the waters between Taiwan proper and the Philippines, US-based Naval News reported. “The Luzon Strait and Bashi Channel represent a critical access
Pope Francis is be laid to rest on Saturday after lying in state for three days in St Peter’s Basilica, where the faithful are expected to flock to pay their respects to history’s first Latin American pontiff. The cardinals met yesterday in the Vatican’s synod hall to chart the next steps before a conclave begins to choose Francis’ successor, as condolences poured in from around the world. According to current norms, the conclave must begin between May 5 and 10. The cardinals set the funeral for Saturday at 10am in St Peter’s Square, to be celebrated by the dean of the College
RSS