The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER, 台灣經濟研究院) yesterday raised its forecast for the nation’s GDP growth from 1.83 to 1.91 percent and expects the momentum to more than double next year as the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic begin to fade.
Taiwan’s economy might expand 4.1 percent next year, bolstered by strong demand for advanced semiconductors, realignment of technology supply chains and renewable energy investment, the Taipei-based think tank said.
Yesterday’s report was the first time that TIER has issued a forecast for the economy for next year.
Photo: Li Ya-wen, Taipei Times
GDP is expected to grow 3.72 percent in the first quarter, 6.68 percent in the second, 3.23 percent in the third and 2.63 percent in the fourth quarter, the think tank said in a report.
Demand for 5G wireless communications devices is expected to swell next year as the world emerges from the pandemic, aided by the creation of vaccines, TIER president Chang Chien-yi (張建一) told a news conference.
International research institutions share the view that the global economy would improve next year, which bodes well for Taiwan’s exports, he said.
Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturers would benefit from the trend, he said.
Reshoring by technology firms moving high-end production lines to Taiwan from China would also boost outbound shipments, with the effect already evident for exports of information and communications technology products, government data showed.
Exports are expected to grow from a revised 1.85 percent this year to 4.87 percent next year, TIER’s report said.
Private investment, a main growth driver last year and in the first half of this year, might climb 4.64 percent next year, compared with 2.14 percent this year, it said.
Local semiconductor firms would continue to upgrade to meet customer demand for the newest technologies, and the government’s promotion of renewable energy sources would attract more foreign investment, TIER said.
Private consumption could rebound from a 1.61 decline this year to a 3.18 percent increase next year, as people would feel more comfortable spending money even though virus infections are spiking again in many parts of the world, TIER economist Gordon Sun (孫明德) said.
COVID-19 mortality rates have noticeably subsided as people adapt to disease-prevention measures, Sun said.
However, Sun said that he expects travel restrictions to stay in place in Taiwan and around the world next year, paving the way for revenge spending after nations lift their disease-prevention controls.
Sinopac Financial Holdings Co (永豐金控) chief economist Jack Huang (黃蔭基) told the news conference that he is expects the TAIEX to rally to the 14,000-point mark next year, thanks to the nation’s healthy economy and profit-making tech names.
“Next year will be a prosperous year,” the best year for the nation’s economy in five years and favorable for private consumption, Huang said.
However, he said that US-China tensions could still send ripples through the global economy.
The Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics in August predicted Taiwan’s GDP would grow 3.92 percent next year. It is due to update its forecast on Nov. 27.
Additional reporting by CNA
Citigroup Inc plans to exit retail banking in 13 markets across Asia, and the region of Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The bank would instead operate its consumer-banking franchise in both regions from four wealth centers in Singapore, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and London, it said yesterday in a statement. The move is part of an ongoing review of the company’s strategy by chief executive officer Jane Fraser, who took over last month. “This positions us to capture the strong growth and attractive returns the wealth-management business offers through these important hubs,” Fraser said. Citigroup is to exit its consumer
CONFIDENTIAL: The trip had not been made public until just before ex-senator Chris Dodd, and ex-state department officials Richard Armitage and James Steinberg arrived The government yesterday welcomed an “unofficial” delegation sent by US President Joe Biden, while another delegation led by US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry was headed to Shanghai. Biden’s first delegation to Taiwan is made up of former US senator Chris Dodd, and former US deputy secretaries of state Richard Armitage and James Steinberg. They are to stay in Taiwan until tomorrow. Their arrival, on a chartered flight, had been kept confidential until media reported the visit yesterday morning, after which the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a short notice that they were expected to arrive at 2:40pm. The flight landed at
MORE TRUSTWORTHY? While officials investigate whether the shelf life of AstraZeneca vaccines can be extended, the Moderna jab might boost inoculations Shipments of Moderna COVID-19 vaccines are due to arrive in Taiwan next month, while another batch of AstraZeneca vaccines allotted to Taiwan under the COVAX program is due to arrive by June, the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) said yesterday. The Chinese-language Apple Daily reported that the Moderna vaccines might arrive at the end of this month or next month. The center in February said that Moderna had agreed to supply about 5 million doses to Taiwan, although at the time the center estimated that they would arrive in the middle of this year. Centers for Disease Control Deputy Director-General Chuang Jen-hsiang (莊人祥),
STANDING TOGETHER: The allies highlighted the importance of cross-strait peace in Japan’s first statement with the US on Taiwan since it switched diplomatic recognition The US and Japan on Friday vowed to stand firm together against an assertive China, and to step up cooperation on climate change and next-generation technology as US President Joe Biden made his first summit a show of alliance unity. Waiting nearly three months for his first foreign guest due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Biden told Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga that his country enjoyed “our iron-clad support” on security issues and beyond. “We’re going to work together to prove that democracies can still compete and win in the 21st century,” Biden told reporters, affectionately calling the Japanese leader “Yoshi.” A joint