Following the shock complete failure of all the recall votes against Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers on July 26, pan-blue supporters and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) were giddy with victory.
A notable exception was KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫), who knew better. At a press conference on July 29, he bowed deeply in gratitude to the voters and said the recalls were “not about which party won or lost, but were a great victory for the Taiwanese voters.”
The entire recall process was a disaster for both the KMT and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Photo: TT file photo
The only bright spot for the KMT was that they did not lose any of the 24 recalls, despite all indications a few weeks prior that they would lose some.
Despite some claims to the contrary, the swing voters who decide elections did not vote for the KMT, but rather against the DPP.
For months, the KMT had been falsely claiming that the recalls were a DPP plot to redo the elections last year and seize power.
Photo: TT file photo
Then, in the final weeks, the DPP decided to fully back the recalls with people and resources, effectively making the KMT’s claims partially true.
Chu’s more contrite response is likely his awareness that until that point, the entire process had been one catastrophe after another for the KMT.
RAISING BLUEBIRDS
The behavior of their legislative caucus in May last year caused the rise of the Bluebird Movement, which flooded the streets with protesters, according to press estimates, reaching 100,000 people at their peak. The KMT caucus not only did nothing to calm the protesters’ fears that they were acting in the interests of the CCP, they doubled down on inflaming them.
By December, recalls against KMT lawmakers started to take shape, and eventually, the majority were successful at raising enough support through the two stages of petitioning required to put recalls to vote. Momentum was on their side, and the KMT was running scared.
The KMT organized its own recalls against the DPP, which all failed spectacularly. Their campaigners lacked the drive, dedication and resources needed, so many resorted to forging signatures.
The public was not backing the KMT’s attempts to manipulate the voters into recalling DPP lawmakers, a lesson the DPP apparently thought did not apply to them. In the end, the electorate rejected both parties’ attempts to manipulate voters to bring down the other side.
In our previous column, “Taiwanese voters losing trust in the DPP,” Aug. 7, page 12, we examined what failings this process exposed about the DPP. This column focuses on the KMT.
CCP PROXIES?
The KMT is complicated, but on one issue, it is clear: the KMT identifies as Chinese and supports the “one China principle” that Taiwan is a province of China. There is disagreement within the party about when and how Taiwan should be annexed into China, but not whether it should be.
That stance is very unpopular. There are many reasons why they are still electorally successful, but a key one relevant to the recalls is that, according to a series of polls by RW News in 2022, the majority of KMT voters in most regions chose them because these voters “hated” the DPP.
The rise of the Bluebirds and subsequent recall campaigns were primarily driven by fears of the KMT legislative caucus acting in the interests of the CCP.
In late April of last year, KMT caucus convener Fu Kun-chi (傅崐萁) led a delegation of 17 party lawmakers to China, including some of the most outspoken pro-China legislators.
Upon their return, they embarked on a series of legislative maneuvers intended to seize powers constitutionally allotted to other branches of government, including the executive. They raised the quorum needed for the Constitutional Court to function and rejected all of the nominees appointed to reach that quorum, creating a constitutional crisis.
They cut and froze large portions of the budget, including critical functions related to national defense, diplomatic outreach and even in some cases, to keep the lights on.
Were they acting on behalf of the CCP to paralyze the government, weaken Taiwan’s ability to defend itself, and generally sow chaos and division? Or were they acting on their — and their constituents’ — hatred and distrust of the DPP?
That the Fu delegation held a closed-door meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s (習近平) number two in command of Taiwan policy and in charge of the United Front Work Department (UFWD) tasked with subverting Taiwan through psychological warfare to ready it for annexation is not confidence-inspiring. Fu later skipped DPP-proposed cross-party consultations to fly to Hong Kong and meet more UFWD officials, further raising suspicions.
The lack of clarity as to what they discussed with those CCP officials, the timeline, and the dismissive behavior of Fu gave the recall campaigns considerable reason to suspect they were acting on behalf of the CCP. It is worryingly possible some are, though not likely all of the KMT caucus — many likely go along with making life difficult for the ruling party just because they hate the DPP.
TOLERATING CRIMINAL ELEMENTS
Though they exist in all parties, the KMT has a particularly lax attitude towards the ambitious, rule-breaking, and outright corrupt and criminal. Fu was in and out of jail throughout the 2010s, yet was invited back into the party and chosen to lead the KMT caucus.
This has been a chronic struggle for the party, between those who are relatively clean and those who emphatically are not. This culture is hard to root out and goes back to the authoritarian era, when the party was extremely corrupt and attracted ambitious, ethically flexible people wanting to profit.
This appeared in the recall campaigns when local KMT chapter officials engaged in widespread voter fraud by copying details from party membership rolls and forging signatures. In one case, the head of one of the KMT’s campaigns effectively dropped out after finding his dead mother on two KMT recall petitions with forged signatures.
Last count, there were over 100 indictments in KMT voter fraud cases around the country, and confessions of guilt are pouring in.
As things stand, this will not likely impact voter decision-making in upcoming elections, in spite of the scale of the scandal. That this culture exists in the KMT is news to no one.
However, if the scandal reaches the top levels of the party, that could change. So far only one low-ranking person in party central has been indicted, but the uniformity and scale of how the recall campaigns implemented this strategy raises suspicions about whether it was coordinated, rather than happened organically and independently.
More seriously for the KMT ahead of local elections next year is their local chapters may be gutted, with many key people in jail. Already, the head of the KMT’s hugely important Taipei chapter, Huang Lu Chin-ju (黃呂錦茹), has pleaded guilty.
The KMT is legendary for its formidable get-out-the-vote prowess, but if it loses so many key figures, that could be severely weakened. Worse for the KMT, the example of so many facing jail time will deter many potential recruits, as happened during the recall campaigns.
The only good news for the KMT is that those 24 lawmakers are immune from further recalls for the rest of their terms. The seven remaining recalls on Aug. 23 look good for the KMT.
Will the party caucus avoid stoking public fears and moderate their agenda, as they did as the recalls gained momentum?
Not likely. Not only have they already paralyzed the Constitutional Court, a report published on Monday by the opposition-controlled legislature suggested that lawmakers do not need to observe Constitutional Court judgments at all.
As Michael Turton ended his Notes from Central Taiwan on Monday: It’s going to be a long, bitter three years.
Donovan’s Deep Dives is a regular column by Courtney Donovan Smith (石東文) who writes in-depth analysis on everything about Taiwan’s political scene and geopolitics. Donovan is also the central Taiwan correspondent at ICRT FM100 Radio News, co-publisher of Compass Magazine, co-founder Taiwan Report (report.tw) and former chair of the Taichung American Chamber of Commerce. Follow him on X: @donovan_smith.
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