Two news items over the past few days got only limited traction in the news media either locally or internationally, but to long-time Taiwan observers both were attention-grabbing. Connecting the dots, I came to the conclusion that though seemingly unrelated, the two very much are and signal a sharp escalation of a diplomatic war between China and a group of American-led nations over the status of Taiwan that has been building in intensity for some time now.
Though there is a chance that the surfacing of a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Type 094 Jin class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine last Tuesday in the Taiwan Strait is connected, that is only possible if Chinese intelligence had gotten wind of what was about to happen ahead of time, which is hard to prove. If they had, they could have meant it as a warning to the US.
The first public indication that something big was going on was on Friday last week when China’s state-run Xinhua news agency very publicly and loudly proclaimed “a set of judicial guidelines targeting diehard ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists” had been issued “as a refinement and supplement to the country’s ‘Anti-Secession’ law” from 2005. A second indication they were signaling something was to send 77 People Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) planes into Taiwan’s air defense identification zones (ADIZ) in just 48 hours.
Photo: Reuters
DEATH PENALTY INCLUDED
The new judicial guidelines include the death penalty as the maximum sentence. This paper yesterday summarized the “crimes” described in the amendments this way: “what is considered crimes worthy of punishment, including promoting Taiwan’s de jure independence, advocating the nation’s entry into international organizations whose memberships are limited to sovereign states, engaging in official exchanges and military contacts abroad, and conspiring to create “two Chinas,” or “one China, one Taiwan,” in the international community.”
Based on a similar law targeting Hong Kong, it is truly terrifying in scale and scope while simultaneously being vague enough to encompass even relatively benign comments, such as “Taiwan was ruled by indigenous peoples for thousands of years,” or even the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) insisting that Taiwan is in the Republic of China (ROC).
Photo: AFP
The amendments do not distinguish by nationality or geography, meaning anyone from any country could be tried in absentia in China. If convicted, the targeted person could potentially be extradited to China, which they have done hundreds of times in the past. According to human rights NGO Safeguard Defender, “as of 2024, China has signed more than 59 bilateral extradition treaties, of which 45 have been ratified.”
These nations include France, Spain, Italy, Brazil, South Africa and most of the ASEAN countries.
They may target people on the previously released Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) official “Taiwan independence” diehards sanctions list that includes Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴), the head of the National Security Council Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) and Defense Minister Wellington Koo (顧立雄) among others. Others that the CCP has made clear they do not like include Western politicians and diplomats, such as former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo.
REAL REASONS BEHIND THIS
The purported reasons for the new amendments are noted by Xinhua: “By clarifying the criminal nature of ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist acts, their criminal liabilities and the procedure to impose penalties, it draws the bottom line and facilitates law enforcement. In the long run, it will undoubtedly play an effective role in advancing reunification across the Taiwan Strait.”
It goes on to add: “It also acts as a warning and deterrent to external forces who would not keep their hands off affairs related to Taiwan. Those who are found to have colluded with any foreign or overseas institution, organization or individual in conducting or inciting secession, would be given a harsher punishment.”
They do not touch on the real reasons for these amendments. One is to look tough and nationalistic to their domestic audience. Another is to inflict psychological fear in Taiwanese and those who support Taiwan internationally that the CCP could potentially be coming for us, not only in China, Hong Kong and Macau, but in 45 other countries as well.
Longer term, they are also probably looking towards a day when they take over Taiwan. I was asked once by some students from Hong Kong if I thought what happened to their city would be the model for the CCP if they took Taiwan. I said no, the model would be East Turkestan, what the Chinese have taken to calling Xinjiang, because Taiwan is not a compact, easily controlled space and Taiwanese historically have been rebellious. These amendments are cosmetics prepared to cover over future crimes against humanity or genocide to make it appear “legal.”
PUZZLING FRIDAY
That the CCP put forth these amendments is no surprise, but that they picked last Friday to announce them was, as well as following them up with 48 hours of heightened incursions into the ADIZ. When the CCP is planning another dramatic change of the status quo, they go out of their way to also pick a date when it will send a message.
For example, often when countries switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, the announcement will be timed to pack a punch, such as Nauru making their announcement right after William Lai (賴清德) won the election. Similarly, there was no way the enormously complex live fire training exercises China launched to upend the status quo could have been planned in the tiny window of time from the-then US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi’s announcement she was to visit Taiwan and her arrival. They had planned it long in advance, — her trip was merely an excuse. To this day, it is common to see the Chinese military gray zone menacing behavior that continues being traced to Pelosi’s visit, almost as if she were somehow to blame.
Xinhua gave this totally unconvincing explanation: “This move came against a backdrop of escalating tensions across the Strait triggered by repeated separatist attempts made by those advocating ‘Taiwan independence,’ particularly since the island’s new leader Lai Ching-te, who holds a stubborn separatist stance, took office in May.”
If this was their message, why not do it around the May 20 inauguration? Or even the one-month anniversary on June 20? Why Friday, June 21? This was very out of character for the CCP to just pick a random day with no particular historical significance or political activity going on.
BOMBSHELL REPORT PROVIDES THE ANSWER
The answer was provided by the Liberty Times’ (the sister newspaper of the Taipei Times) Su Yung-yao (蘇永耀) with a bombshell report on Sunday’s front page. The English-language headline from the same story reads: “US officials say UN Resolution 2758 twisted: sources.” This was picked up by a few local news outlets, but only in a surprisingly limited way.
Two US deputy assistant secretaries of state visited Taiwan on Thursday last week, without attracting the media’s attention, and met with representatives from Taiwan’s 12 allies, as well as those from other like-minded nations, including Australia, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, the EU, Finland, France, Japan, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Poland and the UK. As far as I know, a meeting of 23 countries and the EU being held in Taipei with two top American State Department officials is unprecedented.
The meeting was called to discuss how to increase the Taiwan’s international participation and boost collaboration with countries in the region. The report cites multiple sources as saying that the two officials were here to underscore the point that “UN Resolution 2758 does not involve Taiwan nor should it be conflated with China’s ‘one China’ principle.”
In the past, UN Resolution 2758 would be mentioned around WHA meetings or similar international institutional activities that Taiwan tries to join, but is repeatedly barred from, then forgotten for the rest of the year. Recently there has been a sharp spike in references to the resolution, both by the US State Department and by the CCP that have gotten my attention, but which I had no good explanation for until now.
So, on Thursday a meeting is held with two top American diplomats and 24 international representatives and ambassadors to plan how to increase Taiwan’s international participation. The Liberty Times reported that a representative to Taiwan, who requested anonymity, quoted the US officials as saying during a meeting that as long as it is not specified in UN Resolution 2758, “everything is feasible” with regard to Taiwan pursuing a breakthrough in its external relations.
On Friday last week, the CCP announced that among other things, “advocating the nation’s entry into international organizations whose memberships are limited to sovereign states, engaging in official exchanges and military contacts abroad and conspiring to create “two Chinas,” or “one China, one Taiwan,” in the international community” is punishable by law in China, possibly with the death penalty, and some of the countries participating in the meeting have extradition treaties with China.
We may do a deeper dive into what the meeting might have gone into, and the larger game plan, but it is clear that there is a serious international push backing Taiwan that now appears to be bigger and better organized than it previously appeared to be. It is now also clear that the Chinese are aware of this.
A diplomatic war is now underway over UN Resolution 2758, and it is bigger, more complex and more advanced than we knew. And it just escalated in a big way.
Donovan’s Deep Dives is a regular column by Courtney Donovan Smith (石東文) who writes in-depth analysis on everything about Taiwan’s political scene and geopolitics. Donovan is also the central Taiwan correspondent at ICRT FM100 Radio News, co-publisher of Compass Magazine, co-founder Taiwan Report (report.tw) and former chair of the Taichung American Chamber of Commerce. Follow him on X: @donovan_smith.
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