The growing extraction of rainforest resources is pushing the Amazon and similar biomes toward breaking point, a report has shown.
Fresh demands for critical minerals, biofuels and pulp — used in fast fashion, processed food and packaging — are compounding existing pressures from cattle ranching, monocrops, oil and logging, the analysis found.
Mining, in particular, has a far greater environmental footprint than previously thought, owing to secondary impacts, such as water pollution, and the construction of roads, settlements and other infrastructure development. Between 10 percent and one-third of the world’s forests are already affected and that proportion is expected to increase.
Illustration: Mountain People
That highlights an urgent need to replace and reduce the use of products from forest regions, rather than simply adding new forms of consumption, as is currently the case, the authors of the report said.
The report tracked the commodity trends that are threatening forests in the Amazon, the Congo basin and Southeast Asia, and weakening their capacity to regulate temperature, store carbon, recycle water and provide a home for nature.
Cattle ranching, agriculture and gold mining remain by far the biggest threats, said the study, which was produced by the Dutch research organization Profundo and commissioned by Rainforest Foundation Norway.
All three were forecast to continue expanding.
While the extractive threats of energy, mining and e-commerce are usually examined in isolation, they need to be understood together as a compounding assault on the world’s forests, the authors said.
“It creates a pressure that the rainforests cannot withstand,” Rainforest Foundation Norway deforestation-free markets head Ingrid Turgen said. “Our main message is that this compilation — one on top of the other — is affecting all three rainforest basins [the Amazon, Congo and Southeast Asia] and if governments don’t do something about it, then places like the Amazon face a pretty bleak scenario.”
The 10.2 percent increase in beef production forecast by the Brazilian government is expected to cause at least 57,000km2 of deforestation by 2034, the report predicted.
This could be considerably higher if the trend of shifting ranching to the Amazon continues. Over the same period, global meat production is expected to increase 13 percent, driven by population growth.
Open pit goldmines already cover 1.9 million hectares of the Amazon biome, and that is likely to increase because of projected demand for jewelry (accounts for 43 percent of gold use), technology (7 percent), and ingots held by investors and central banks.
The report found a clear correlation between gold prices and gold mining-related deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. On recent trends, this is projected to cause an extra 375km2 of deforestation by 2028.
Oil, gas and coal are playing an ever bigger role in the destruction of rainforests, directly from drilling and indirectly through global heating. The Amazon is one of the fastest-growing fossil fuel frontiers with exploration and extraction in Brazil, Suriname, Ecuador, Colombia and Peru. Nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas reserves identified between 2022 and 2024 were found in the South American rainforest and offshore regions.
Last year, the Democratic Republic of the Congo approved exploration of 52 new oil blocks covering 124 million hectares in the Cuvette Centrale peatlands, the world’s largest terrestrial carbon sink and a highly biodiverse critical ecosystem.
Additional pressure is coming from mining for critical minerals, such as lithium, nickel and cobalt that are used for batteries and other technologies used in the transition toward cleaner energy.
The study estimated that cumulative deforestation linked to the global electric vehicle fleet would be between 1,500km2 to 4,700km2 by 2050 on current trends.
That is barely 1 percent of all deforestation expected in that period, but the secondary effects are also considerable.
The environmental impact of mines could spread across a 50km radius, because of water and land contamination, the report said. Mines also tend to disproportionately affect indigenous territories and other areas of relatively intact forest.
“The cumulative impacts of mining on forest areas have likely been significantly underestimated for many years,” Rainforest Foundation Norway special adviser Veera Mo said.
Another source of rising stress on the forest is the biofuel sector, which claims to be a sustainable alternative to oil and gas for aviation and shipping. However, that could lead to forest clearance for soy, tallow, palm and ethanol.
About 52 million hectares of additional cropland would be needed to meet the projected 2030 global demand for biofuel, the report said.
For biofuel-related soy crops alone, it predicts between 31,600km2 and 35,000km2 of Amazon vegetation would be cleared by 2035.
Palm oil pressures are also growing as processed foods grow more popular across the world.
Until now, the main impact has been on the forests of Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia, but the report said that the Congo basin could be a new frontier for palm oil, because the markets for processed foods are growing along with urbanization in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa.
Other throwaway products marketed as “green” in faraway urban cities could also worsen the health of tropical rainforests. The fast-fashion popularity of the semi-synthetic fiber viscose (also known as rayon) is adding to the pressure on Indonesia’s forests, because one of its core ingredients is wood pulp. Similarly, the paper bags often touted as a “green” alternative to plastic carriers are not always sustainably sourced, nor is much of the packaging used for the fast-growing e-commerce sector.
The report set out possible solutions, including improved transparency in supply chains and stronger enforcement of regulations. Recycling could also help reduce new mine development needs. Ultimately, a core goal should be to reduce demand in consumer countries.
“A reduction in resource use can’t be avoided. There is no doubt recycling is needed, but it will not help enough,” lead author Barbara Kuepper said. “The overall use of resources is just too big.”
“Even in sectors where we hope for a transition, like energy, the impact on forests is worryingly high,” Kuepper said.
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