Japanese lawmakers reeling from attacks on Iran by the US and Israel gathered on Monday at the ruling party’s offices in Tokyo to question bureaucrats about evacuation plans, energy stocks and the legal basis for US action.
However, one query posed at the closed-door meeting, described to Reuters by a politician who attended, reflected a deeper fear haunting Asia’s corridors of power since the administration of US President Donald Trump’s weekend attacks unleashed chaos in the Middle East.
How would the region respond to a hole left in its defenses if Washington diverted ships and missiles it now uses to deter China?
The problem is urgent for Japan and South Korea, home to big US military bases that help counter China’s military flexing and nuclear-armed North Korea, as well as for democratic Taiwan, claimed by Beijing and armed by Washington.
“We hope this operation is fast, limited and that resources can be promptly shifted back to Asia,” said Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Chen Kuan-ting (陳冠廷), who sits on the Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee.
A prolonged conflict could harm “stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific” region, Chen said, adding that Taipei must prepare for Beijing to step up “coercion” while the US is distracted.
Trump, who has said US operations in the Middle East would last four or five weeks, but could be sustained far longer, plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) at the end of this month, though Beijing has not confirmed his visit.
Taiwan is an internal matter for China and Beijing firmly opposes the use of force to infringe on the sovereignty and security of other countries, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Mao Ning (毛寧) said on Tuesday.
The US departments of state and defense did not immediately respond to a request for comment for this report.
The Japanese politician who recounted Monday’s questioning said a top foreign ministry official replied that Tokyo had sought assurances from Washington that it would not shift US military assets.
About 40 percent of US navy ships ready for operations are currently stationed around the Middle East, the US Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a report last month.
These include an aircraft carrier, the Abraham Lincoln, and at least six missile destroyers based in the Pacific ports of California, Hawaii and Japan, the US Naval Institute said on Monday.
The only US carrier deployed in Asia, the George Washington, is undergoing maintenance at its base in the Japanese city of Yokosuka.
“The US Navy is stretched thin,” said Bryan Clark, a former US defense official specializing in naval operations at the Hudson Institute.
If the war dragged on, there was a realistic possibility that the US could draw down its naval strength in Asia to reinforce the Iran conflict, he added.
“The fleet ... is not sufficient to keep a steady presence in every theater,” he said.
The Iran conflict is also depleting reserves of US munitions, about which experts have long warned. The US military has asked defense firms to step up production, but that could take several years.
That is a concern for the US, because rebuilding munitions reserves in the Indo-Pacific region helps deter China from military action on Taiwan over the medium term, said a US official, who sought anonymity as the matter is a sensitive one.
Japan has already faced delays in deliveries of hundreds of Tomahawk missiles ordered from the US and could fall further behind schedule, said Jan van Tol, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
It is just three months since Washington unveiled a new security strategy that framed the Indo-Pacific region as the key “geopolitical battleground” and made a top priority of deterring a conflict over Taiwan.
Since then, Trump has captured the leader of Venezuela in an audacious military strike, threatened to annex Greenland and teamed with Israel to launch the air war against Iran.
However, while allies in Asia worry he might be taking his eye off the prize, some analysts say Beijing has little to cheer, at least for now.
By hitting Venezuela and Iran, Trump weakened two of its allies that sent China streams of cheap oil, buoying its economy.
Some analysts have even suggested his military actions are part of a grand plan to enable the US to focus on containing China.
However, the longer Trump’s entanglement in the Middle East persists, the more Beijing could start to benefit.
“The grand strategy is supposed to be ‘contain Iran in the Middle East, then shift resources toward dealing with China,’” a Japanese ruling party lawmaker said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“But the question is whether there will be enough resources left to shift,” the lawmaker said.
China has exploited previous episodes of US distraction, said Jennifer Parker, a former warfare officer with the Royal Australian Navy, pointing to its rapid militarization of South China Sea islands as the US pursued the war in Afghanistan.
“Beijing will be watching closely,” said Parker, a nonresident fellow at the Sydney-based Lowy Institute think tank.
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