Early in the new year, then-Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro was deposed by US forces; the country is now on the path to normalization. On the other side of the globe, the anger of Iranians has spread through cities large and small, and the country’s authoritarian dictatorship is on the verge of collapse.
Several major authoritarian governments survive by relying on each other, and they often collapse one after another like dominoes.
In 2024, as Russia became caught up in the invasion of Ukraine and as Iran’s allies such as Palestinian militant group Hamas and Hezbollah were dealt heavy blows, the two countries were no longer able to tend to Syria. As a result, the regime of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad — whose family had ruled for 54 years — collapsed dramatically within just 12 days.
Cuba relies on Venezuela for support. Now that Caracas is undergoing a change of power, US President Donald Trump has said that he would no longer sacrifice the rights and interests of Venezuelans to aid Cuba. The Cuban regime could be the next domino to fall.
The protests in Iran are even more intense than those at the early stage of the Syrian uprising. The reason the al-Assad regime was able to hold on to power was due to the external support of Iran and Russia.
Now that Russia is in dire straits, who can Iran rely on for support?
If Iran’s totalitarian regime collapsed, Russia would inevitably have no choice but to end its war in Ukraine as soon as possible and cooperate with the US.
By the end of last year, Russia, Iran and Venezuela together accounted for more than 40 percent of China’s oil imports. Discounted crude oil from the three countries has acted like an intravenous drip sustaining China’s sluggish economy. What would the consequences be if it were removed?
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is putting on a strong face despite the country’s internal weakness.
Israel last month recognized Taiwan’s ally, Somaliland, which Beijing views as a breakaway region of Somalia. China loudly voiced opposition to what it called Hargeisa’s collusion with Taipei to seek independence. To show support for Somalia, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi (王毅) had planned to visit the country on Friday, in what would have been the first visit by a Chinese foreign minister in more than 30 years.
However, China suddenly backed out of the trip and limited itself to a mere phone call.
Somaliland mocked the move, saying that Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Gideon Saar visited Somaliland safely, yet Wang is so concerned about security that he does not dare go to Somalia. Who, then, is the true sovereign nation?
Somalia’s northern Puntland region is semi-autonomous, while the rest of the country is plagued with internal chaos, failing to function as a proper state — a fundamental reason Hargeisa criticizes Mogadishu. Somalia is unable to maintain security within its own borders, and China is powerless to protect its own foreign minister abroad, having no choice but to retreat with its tail between its legs.
Even China’s ally North Korea has turned against it. Pyongyang, which originally depended on China for survival, deliberately spoiled a rare opportunity for Beijing to save face when South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, driven by a pro-China stance, visited China earlier this month.
North Korea launched ballistic missiles in a show of force that blatantly undermined China. Even Lee was aware that he could not rely entirely on China, as he sought a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi soon after.
It appears that only Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) remains blindly pro-China, as she pushes to restart the long-suspended Cross-Strait Economic, Trade and Culture Forum, better known as the “KMT-CCP Forum,” fantasizing about a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平).
The KMT should wake up to the international situation: China no longer has a future, and it is time to return to the right path. If Cheng insists on going her own way, other KMT members must have the courage to correct the course and restore order.
Tommy Lin is chairman of the Formosa Republican Association and director of the Taiwan United Nations Alliance.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
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