The 2022 visit to Taiwan by then-US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi has been analyzed to exhaustion. The lesson that matters is clear: Symbolism without policy raises the risk for Taiwan. What Taiwan and its partners need is a standing, boring-by-design playbook that lowers the chance of miscalculation while strengthening day-to-day resilience.
Start with communications. Senior, non-executive US visits should run on pre-agreed protocols, not improvisation. Before wheels-up, officials should lock in what will and will not be said, clarify itineraries and align force postures to avoid tit-for-tat theatrics. A staffed, tested hotline — used for itinerary clarification, air and maritime safety, and quick correction of misread messages — should be automatic, not optional.
Next, set a Taiwan Strait notification standard. All sides should give early, reciprocal notice for major drills and missile tests that could affect flight corridors or exclusive economic zones. When these zones intersect with the airspace and waters of Japan or the Philippines, automatic deconfliction should kick in. This is not a concession; it is routine safety management.
Allies are not bystanders. Missiles splashing down near Japan, rerouted flights and hurried consultations showed how quickly tensions in the Taiwan Strait can spill across borders.
A risk-coordination cell linking Japan, the Philippines, Australia and South Korea should be created. Its remit: shared thresholds for contingency moves, synchronized evacuation and logistics planning, and pre-baked public messaging.
For Taipei, substance must outrank spectacle. Publish a “substance over symbolism” ledger that directs political energy and budgets toward what actually hardens deterrence and social resilience. Priorities include asymmetric, survivable capabilities; realistic joint training; robust civil defense; and continuity plans that keep power, data and essential goods flowing under stress.
Add two Taiwan-first tools that would have helped in 2022 and will help next time. A civil-economic continuity clause in any US-Taiwan package, and a deconfliction trigger with Japan and the Philippines whenever identification zones, economic zones or flight corridors overlap.
These guardrails do not reward coercion. They reduce the payoff from theatrics by making dangerous ambiguity rarer and mistakes easier to correct. They also make calibrated penalties more credible: When the rules are clear, violations carry reputational and diplomatic costs.
None of this means canceling visits or muting support. Taiwan should not be isolated. The standard is pragmatic: If a trip cannot pass a basic safety and coordination check — communications, notifications and allied readiness — it should be delayed until it can. In an environment where the signal-to-noise ratio is a challenge, prudence is deterrence.
Markets already understand the difference between noise and structure. After the 2022 shock following Pelosi’s visit, flights normalized and fundamentals held. What remained exposed was structural: deep cross-strait trade and Taiwan’s centrality in global tech supply chains. Guardrails are not a favor to Taiwan; they are a regional necessity.
The metrics of success are modest and measurable: fewer close calls, shorter disruptions and predictable behavior.
Make high-profile visits boring again. If the region can routinize crisis communications, notification standards and allied coordination — and if Taipei keeps investing in asymmetric defense, civil preparedness and economic continuity — Taiwan will be safer, not just more visible.
Guardrails beat grand gestures.
Y. Tony Yang is an endowed professor at George Washington University in Washington.
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