Expectations are rock-bottom for an EU-China summit today that would test European resolve and unity as the bloc faces intense trade pressure from both Beijing and the US, analysts said.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa plan to press Chinese leaders on rare earths and the war in Ukraine, both areas of tension, during the summit in Beijing.
There is little hope for headway, at a time both sides face major challenges sustaining economic growth and Europe struggles to shore up support for Ukraine.
The summit was shortened from two days to one due to a “scheduling conflict” raised by Chinese officials, two sources familiar with the planning told Reuters. A business roundtable that was meant to happen on the second day in the Chinese city of Hefei would now take place in Beijing, one of the sources said.
Both sides might reach a modest joint statement on climate, one of the sources said, but no other tangible achievements are expected.
In multiple recent speeches, Von der Leyen has revived hawkish China rhetoric, accusing China on July 8 of “enabling Russia’s war economy” and flooding global markets with overcapacity.
“We know that we don’t see eye to eye with China on many issues, but we believe that it is essential to have this kind of very direct and open and constructive conversation,” one EU official said.
The official and the sources declined to be identified, as they were not authorized to speak to the media.
A spokesperson for the European Commission referred to a statement announcing the summit, which said leaders would discuss ways of ensuring “a more balanced, reciprocal and mutually beneficial trade relationship.”
In response to Reuters’ questions, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs referred to a spokesperson’s statement on Monday.
“Some people in Europe continue to ... exaggerate specific economic and trade issues, and make groundless accusations against China on the Ukraine issue, causing unnecessary interference to China-EU relations,” its spokesperson said.
The 27-member EU has also been negotiating hard with Washington after US President Donald Trump threatened 30 percent tariffs on most EU exports from Friday next week, with prospects for a broader trade deal fading.
At the Beijing summit, China hopes to press the EU for a solution to its tariffs on China-built electric vehicles, for which Beijing claims price commitment negotiations are in the “final stages.” However, European officials say there has been little progress for months.
Last week, China threatened to respond to EU sanctions on two Chinese banks and five firms over the Ukraine war. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce on Monday said the sanctions “seriously harmed trade, economic and financial ties.”
Other trade disputes are simmering in the background. China retaliated against EU restrictions on medical device procurement with its own curbs on July 6, and slapped duties on French cognac producers.
China’s exports to the EU grew in May, while its US exports plunged 34.5 percent in value terms the same month, sparking fears Chinese trade overcapacity is being diverted to the bloc due to US tariffs on Chinese goods.
There is also a growing sense that EU firms are collateral damage for China’s rare earth export controls that primarily targeted Washington, but have disrupted European defense and automotive supply chains.
In return for concessions on rare earths, China’s asks could include reviving a long-stalled investment agreement after Beijing lifted sanctions on European Parliament members in May, and pushing back on US export curbs on Dutch firm ASML’s chipmaking equipment.
China has raised both in the weeks leading up to the summit, two sources familiar with the matter said.
“The mood is extremely pessimistic in Europe regarding the summit,” said Mathieu Duchatel, a director at the Institut Montaigne think tank in Paris, adding that Washington rejected previous EU proposals for coordination on China policy.
“There is a sense that the gloves are completely off on the Chinese side... They sense the transatlantic relationship has weakened and are trying to seize the opportunity,” he said.
Diplomats and analysts also said that China is growing increasingly frustrated behind closed doors with European officials’ repeated insistence on the war in Ukraine, which Beijing views as an obstacle in the relationship.
There is little space for constructive dialogue on this, another EU official admitted, with Chinese counterparts denying evidence of Chinese firms’ involvement in supplying dual-use goods to Russia.
Meanwhile, China believes Europe would cave in to US tariff pressure, a diplomat familiar with Chinese official thinking said.
Beijing succeeded in getting Trump to lower crushing 145 percent tariffs during talks in May and scored a further win when Washington agreed to resume Nvidia Corp’s H20 artificial intelligence chip exports, leaving it in a relatively strong position.
“This will be the latest in a long list of EU-China summits that have delivered next to nothing,” said Noah Barkin, senior adviser at Rhodium Group’s China practice.
“It is a sign that the economic and security problems in the relationship have become so deep-seated as to be irreconcilable,” he added.
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