Japan’s upper house election concluded with the ruling coalition failing to secure a majority. This marks the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) third straight loss under the leadership of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba — following last year’s lower house election and this year’s Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly race.
A poll released on Monday last week by Jiji Press showed that support for the Ishiba Cabinet had plummeted to 20.8 percent, a new low since he took office — bringing him perilously close to what is commonly referred to as “resignation waters.”
Although Ishiba expressed his intention to stay in office during a post-election news conference, internal calls for change might prove difficult to suppress. The Yomiuri Shimbun reported that potential successor Sanae Takaichi on Friday said that she would “restore the LDP’s backbone,” signaling that a shift in party leadership dynamics is under way.
Following the election, former Japanese prime minister Taro Aso took the lead to make it clear that “Ishiba remaining in office is unacceptable.”
There are three key reasons behind the LDP’s crushing defeat:
First, a weak economy and rising prices. The so-called “Reiwa rice crisis” has underscored Japan’s mounting livelihood issues. The consumer price index rose 3.3 percent year-on-year last year, making inflation a key issue. With no clear path to economic recovery, public dissatisfaction surged, which was directly reflected in the votes.
Second, persistent scandals over politics and money. The LDP has long struggled with issues of money politics. Despite the major setback in last year’s lower house election, the party has shown little willingness to pursue genuine reform. Problems surrounding corporate and organizational donations remain unresolved, eroding public trust and further damaging the party’s image.
Third, conservative voters’ shift toward anti-China parties. Ishiba, a political disciple of former Japanese prime minister Kakuei Tanaka, has pushed for improved relations with China, and advocated separating politics and economics in the pursuit of bilateral ties. Beijing reciprocated with gestures of goodwill, including the removal of buoys near the Senkaku Islands, known in Taiwan as the Diaoyutais (釣魚台), and Yonaguni Island.
However, amid intensifying US-China tensions and growing anti-China sentiment in Japan, Ishiba’s approach was condemned by right-wing public opinion as “weak” and “out of touch.” This opened the door for the rise of the far-right Sanseito party, which drew large numbers of conservative voters.
As Ishiba sought deeper economic cooperation with China to revitalize Japan’s economy, he took a hardline stance in trade talks with the US, prompting US President Donald Trump to describe Japan’s attitude as “extremely unfriendly.” This inconsistency in foreign policy and lack of strategic clarity left voters disoriented and disillusioned. In contrast, Sanseito capitalized on a populist-
conservative message of “Japan first,” emulating Trump’s style and promoting policies such as constitutional revision and decoupling from Chinese supply chains. These positions resonated strongly with the younger generation, propelling the party to unexpected success.
The election was not only a referendum on Ishiba’s leadership, but also revealed a broader rightward shift in Japanese politics. As global tensions deepen, Japanese voters’ anxieties about security and stability continue to grow, prompting a gradual tilt of the political balance toward conservatism, driven by a collective instinct to protect home and country.
Wang Hui-sheng is a founding member of the East Asian Research Institute.
Translated by Lin Lee-kai
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