A recent series of war games held in Taipei has cast a sobering light on Taiwan’s readiness to confront a Chinese invasion, exposing not just military vulnerabilities, but also strategic hesitation and fragile assumptions about international support.
On Tuesday last week, nine retired generals from Taiwan, Japan and the US took part in a tabletop exercise that simulated a potential Chinese invasion of the nation in 2030. The former military and government officials were tasked with reacting to a sequence of escalating provocations, from Chinese military mobilizations and propaganda to a full-scale amphibious invasion. The scenarios included missile strikes, naval blockades, information warfare and destabilizing actions from North Korea.
Taiwan’s response to initial provocations was notably restrained. As Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces crossed red lines, including seizing outlying islands and establishing beachheads, Taiwan hesitated. The Taiwanese team consistently delayed decisive military responses in favor of diplomatic or political solutions. When full conflict erupted, Taiwan launched asymmetric defense operations and air counterattacks, but the Chinese team already had the upper hand.
One of the simulation’s clearest messages was that Taiwan’s defense posture remains hamstrung by a deep-rooted fear of “firing the first shot.” This reluctance, born from decades of cross-strait “status quo” diplomacy and reinforced by concerns over international perceptions of “provocation,” gave China an advantage in “gray zone” conflict scenarios.
This cautious approach plays into Beijing’s hands. It allows the Chinese military to gradually test and expand into Taiwan’s boundaries while exploiting ambiguity to undermine allied support. The war game underscored a fundamental paradox: Taiwan’s decision to act militarily often hinges on whether the US and Japan are perceived to be ready to intervene. However, those allies are also watching Taiwan’s willingness to defend itself before committing to action. During the simulation, US participants made their position clear: Support for Taiwan would only materialize if it first demonstrated the resolve to fight. Without a strong, immediate show of self-defense, allied intervention becomes politically and militarily difficult to justify. Japan’s team also expressed concern about minimal communication from Taiwan, saying the team did not adequately convey what it wanted from Japan during the scenarios.
To be clear, Taiwan’s military is far from weak. Over the past few years, it has made measurable progress in building out its asymmetric capabilities, from long-range missile systems to special forces, drone units and battlefield digitization. If the PLA were to launch a traditional, high-intensity invasion of Taiwan proper, it would not be an easy target. However, modern warfare rarely begins with a blitzkrieg. Instead, it unfolds from “gray zone” tactics: legal ambiguity, psychological warfare, economic coercion and calibrated military pressure that blur the line between peace and war.
The simulation showed that Taiwan must urgently shift from a reactive posture to a proactive one. It needs to clearly define its strategic red lines and, more importantly, embed them into military protocols that enable swift, decisive responses. Whether it is the incursion of a Chinese warship within 12 nautical miles (22.2km) of its territory, the seizure of an outlying island or attacks on undersea communication infrastructure, Taiwan must have standing rules of engagement, warning procedures and escalation options that can be activated without delay. If red lines are repeatedly crossed without a response, Taiwan would lose not only tactical momentum, but also the credibility of its defense commitment in the eyes of the international community.
The lessons from this war game are timely and urgent. Taiwan cannot afford to continue hedging its defense strategy on ambiguity, hesitation or hope. Nor can it expect its allies to step in while it twiddles its thumbs. If the future of Taiwan as a democratic state is to be preserved, it must signal — not just to China, but to the world — that it is ready and willing to fight for that future.
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