The Israeli plan to occupy and depopulate Gaza might not be identical to US President Donald Trump’s vision of a new riviera, but his inspiration and the US’ walkaway diplomacy have ushered Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the precipice of a dire new chapter in the Israel-Gaza war.
The common perception in Washington and Israel is that Trump has largely moved on, leaving an emboldened Netanyahu to his own devices, while his offhand proposals for turning Gaza into a “Riviera of the Middle East” have provided cover for right-wing Israeli politicians to enthusiastically support the forced resettlement of the Palestinian population.
“Part of the tragedy is that the only one who can actually save us, Trump, is not even seriously interested in that,” said Amos Harel, a prominent military and defense correspondent for the Haaretz newspaper. “Our only hope to get out of this crazy situation is that Trump would force Netanyahu to reach a hostage deal. But [Trump] seems disinterested. He was enthusiastic when the Riviera [idea] was proposed, but now he has moved on to Greenland, Canada and Mexico instead.”
Trump’s interventions — specifically US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff’s threats to Netanyahu during a tense Shabbat meeting — were instrumental in achieving a temporary ceasefire to the conflict in January. His influence on Netanyahu appeared to be greater than that of previous US presidents, including his rival Joe Biden.
Since then, the ceasefire has broken down, a two-month Israeli blockade on aid has sparked an even worse humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and, with few opportunities for a quick peace, the White House now appears uninterested and overstretched as Israel signals an offensive and occupation that critics have said would amount to a state policy of ethnic cleansing.
It is a trend that has repeated with this White House: broad designs for a grand deal followed by frustration when diplomacy fails to yield instant results. Recently, the White House announced that it was also ready to walk away from negotiations over the Russia-Ukraine conflict if a quick deal was not achieved.
That has incentivized Russia to wait out the Trump administration, observers have said, and bank on a policy of US non-engagement in the longer term. Netanyahu similarly appears to have been unleashed by the White House’s growing disinterest.
The Israeli ultimatum comes as Trump is scheduled to tour the Middle East next week, with Israeli officials briefing that they would begin the operation only after he returns from a three-day visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Trump’s talks there are expected to focus on investment and a likely quixotic quest to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, but not on achieving a resolution to the war.
On Tuesday, Maariv, an Israeli newspaper, reported that a Trump visit to Israel was not out of the question, but White House officials have not yet signaled that Trump is ready to go meet Netanyahu.
Witkoff still appears personally invested in a resolution to the conflict, but he is overstretched by attempting to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, and also negotiate an Iran nuclear deal simultaneously. The US has continued negotiations with Israel over an aid delivery scheme that would create a new mechanism for aid distribution to avoid Hamas, they have said. The UN and all aid organizations working in Gaza have condemned the plan as an Israeli takeover.
“It contravenes fundamental humanitarian principles and appears designed to reinforce control over life-sustaining items as a pressure tactic — as part of a military strategy,” the heads of all UN agencies and non-governmental organizations that operate in Gaza said in a joint statement on Sunday.
The Trump administration’s budget and personnel cuts have also signaled a retreat from diplomacy. The state department was reportedly ready to cut the role of the security coordinator role for the West Bank and Gaza, a three-star general who was tasked with managing security crises between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, particularly with regards to growing tensions between settlers and local Palestinian communities.
More importantly, Trump has given cover to Israeli officials who had sought more aggressive action in Gaza, including forced depopulations. Right-wingers in government have been particularly aggressive, with Israeli Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich saying that within months Gaza would be “totally destroyed” and the Gazan population would be “concentrated” in a small strip of land.
“The rest of the strip will be empty,” he said.
Other ministers have also become more radical using Trump’s rhetoric for cover, Harel said.
“Once Trump said that, you could see how not only the radicals, but also Likud ministers and so on, have an excuse,” Harel said. “‘It’s not us. It’s the world, the free world’s leader is saying that, so we have to play along.’”
Andrew Roth is the Guardian’s global affairs correspondent based in Washington. He covers the state department and US foreign policy. He was previously based in Russia for more than a decade, where he was the Guardian’s Moscow correspondent and reported on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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