US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s trip to Asia showed that the administration of US President Donald Trump is engaged with the region, but analysts warned Taipei to tread carefully.
China’s military on Tuesday launched joint drills around Taiwan, sending ships, planes and some bizarre propaganda videos across the Taiwan Strait to warn and punish Taiwan’s government over what Beijing calls “separatist activity.”
The purported provocation was assertiveness by President William Lai (賴清德), who last month designated China a “foreign hostile force,” and announced 17 measures to counter its espionage and influence operations.
It probably had another intended audience: Washington, and specifically Hegseth. Hegseth had only just left Asia, where he promised “credible deterrence” efforts by the US against China in the Indo-Pacific region.
“The publicity around the exercise likely also has the US in mind — they want to persuade the Trump administration that Lai is a troublemaker and to deter the US from maintaining high levels of support to Taiwan,” said Amanda Hsiao (蕭嫣然), China director at the Eurasia Group.
That maintenance has been less than assured since Trump took office for the second time — upending the global order and withdrawing the US from much of its role as a superpower highly involved in geopolitics.
Trump’s public questioning of Taiwan’s value, his accusations of industrial theft and his dramatic abandonment of Ukraine had left many in the nation wondering if its most important partner might not be so reliable any more.
In the past few days, in the clearest signs yet, the US has shown it plans to keep up its support of Taiwan’s freedom, at least for now.
On Sunday last week in Tokyo, Hegseth met his Japanese counterpart, Japanese Minister of Defense Gen Nakatani, and declared the US was “re-establishing deterrence,” (claiming it had waned under former US president Joe Biden — an assessment several analysts said they disagreed with).
“America is committed to sustaining robust, ready and credible deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, including across the Taiwan Strait,” Hegseth said.
It followed comments in the Philippines, where he met Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, that the two countries should stand “shoulder to shoulder” to deter conflict. China is also engaged in escalating hostilities with the Philippines over disputed territory in the South China Sea.
While Hegseth was still in Asia, the Washington Post reported on a leaked internal Pentagon memo, directing the prioritization of deterring a Chinese annexation of Taiwan, while pulling back from other regions including the Middle East and Europe, where Russia continues to wage war on Ukraine.
“China is the department’s sole pacing threat, and denial of a Chinese fait accompli seizure of Taiwan — while simultaneously defending the US homeland is the department’s sole pacing scenario,” the memo reportedly said.
Hegseth’s comments and the memo have provided some reassurance in Taiwan.
They “give strong assurances to US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific that the US will continue to be a strong military presence in the region,” said Bethany Allen, head of China investigations and analysis at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, adding that the memo’s “sole pacing scenario” language about Taiwan went beyond previous US statements from any administration.
“What we’re not seeing from this administration compared to previous ones, is the invocation of solidarity among democracies as a reason for US military assurances in the region,” Allen said.
A Taiwanese official said that Taiwan was deeply appreciative of Hegseth’s remarks, which the official said remained consistent with longstanding US policy on bolstering Taiwan’s military deterrence capabilities.
The official also said the remarks fit with the existing trajectory of “an increasingly robust US commitment to the region,” and that Taiwan maintains “frequent and very positive” communications with the many different levels of the Trump administration. Other signs of US support include a visit to Taiwan from the Alaska governor for talks on fuel sales, increases in US military training of Taiwanese soldiers and fast-tracked deliveries of major weapons orders to Taiwan.
Taiwan’s presidential office declined to comment on the reported memo.
However, publicly and privately, the government has stressed it has not had concerns about the US’ commitment, even if analysts say Taipei’s actions — which have included delegations sent to Washington, pledges to increase spending and major new semiconductor deals — have suggested differently.
Rorry Daniels, managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute, said Taiwan would have to tread carefully “not to be seen as putting the US at risk” of entering a costly war.
As president, Lai has taken a more confrontational approach to cross-strait tensions than his predecessor.
“Whether the Trump administration sees Taipei’s actions as escalatory matters a great deal in how it would respond to a contingency,” Daniels said.
Analysts said Hegseth’s comments, while a positive sign for Taiwan, should still be taken with a grain of salt. Some pointed to widespread warnings that there is some space between what US officials say and do, and what Trump says.
“There’s a concern with the Trump administration that its attention shifts around, and what is promised now may not come through,” said Ja-Ian Chong (莊嘉穎), a political scientist at National University of Singapore.
Raymond Kuo (郭泓均), a political scientist at the RAND Corp, said Hegseth’s comments reflected a continuation and intensification of the “pivot” to Asia driven by successive administrations, but there were factional considerations.
“The China hawks in the administration generally have not been the main drivers in recent foreign policy discussions, including Greenland, the Panama Canal and Canada,” he said.
Kuo warned that Trump has the final decisionmaking power and he has proved to be highly transactional and to hold negative opinions of Taiwan.
There is also a credibility issue. The world has seen how Trump treated Ukraine, and the global recipients of US Agency for International Development assistance.
Hegseth, a former national guard major and Fox News host, is also battling calls for his resignation after he shared sensitive military information to a Signal group that had mistakenly included a journalist. In messages subsequently published from the group, Hegseth accused Europe of being “pathetic” and “freeloading.”
The Trump team’s treatment of partners raised questions about “how well, willing and able they are to work with allies in the region,” Chong said.
Beijing is of course watching. There are talks of a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) being arranged.
“It will be important for Trump to deliver a clear signal of resolve to uphold the status quo when he meets with Xi,” said Ryan Hass, director of the China Center at the Brookings Institute, adding that deterrence depends on capabilities and resolve.
“Secretary Hegseth’s comments and reported directives are additive and helpful in this regard, but ultimately, Beijing will take the measure of President Trump,” he said.
Helen Davidson is a Guardian correspondent based in Taipei.
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