Farmers in the US plan to plant more corn and fewer soybeans this spring than they did last year, hoping to eke out a profit and shield themselves from US President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs, growers and analysts said.
“When you look at relative profitability, corn is winning the acreage battle,” said Frayne Olson, an agricultural economist with North Dakota State University.
Some farmers might be able to earn “a nickel or two” on every bushel of corn, Iowa State University economist Chad Hart said. However, for soybeans and other crops, prices have fallen below the cost of production.
Illustration: Louise Ting
“Right now, given what cost structures look like, corn has the best pathway to make a little profit in 2025,” Hart said.
Planting decisions that are usually finalized in winter help determine the production of corn and soybeans, the top two US cash crops. The grains are primarily used for animal feed, cooking oils and renewable fuels. The US is the world’s largest corn exporter and the No. 2 soybean supplier after Brazil.
Global corn stockpiles are projected to hit a decade low this year, so a big US crop would help replenish inventories, making more grain available to world buyers. Still, more US corn stays in the country than soybeans, making corn a better hedge against tariffs.
A Reuters poll of analysts this week forecast that corn plantings would rise to 37.9 million hectares, while soybean plantings would fall to 34.2 million hectares.
Growers face a third straight year of dwindling crop revenues, making decisions about what and how much to plant much tougher. Farmers are expected to turn a slight profit this year, largely because of government disaster relief, even as income from crops is expected to fall for a third straight year, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast this month.
Prices for corn and soybeans, as well as other major crops such as wheat and cotton, are low enough that US farmers would struggle to turn much of a profit with any of them, economists said.
“This year, it’s all about what crop is going to lose the least amount of money,” said Eric Kroupa, a farmer in central South Dakota who raises corn, soybeans, wheat and cattle.
Trump’s tariffs against major buyers of US grain might add to corn’s advantage while discouraging soybean plantings. The US exports about 40 percent of its soybean crop each year, but only about 15 percent of its corn harvest, leaving soybean prices more sensitive to trade disruptions.
China is by far the world’s top soy buyer, booking more than half of US soybean exports annually, while the customer base for US corn is more varied.
Trade tensions with China flared last month after the Trump administration slapped 10 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports, and Beijing responded by imposing limited tariffs on a smaller set of US goods, excluding agriculture products. Duties against Mexico, another major buyer of US grains, and Canada, a buyer of US grains, meats and food products, are set to take effect on Tuesday.
The skirmishes echoed a trade war with China in 2018, during Trump’s first term in office, after which China shifted more of its purchases of soybeans and corn to Brazil. For the current marketing year, the USDA estimates that Brazil would supply 58 percent of world soybean exports, compared with just 27 percent for the US.
Farmers often book seed and fertilizer purchases over the winter, well ahead of planting season in April and May. However this year, low prices and uncertainty surrounding trade have prompted at least some growers to delay planting decisions until spring.
“A lot of people won’t make final decisions right now,” said Nancy Johnson, executive director of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association. “The tweaking you do on those last acres will be at the last possible moment, based on what’s happening at that moment.”
Corn futures have rallied in recent weeks, signaling profitability for growers. Benchmark Chicago Board of Trade corn futures fell to a four-year low below US$4 a bushel in August, but climbed back above US$5 this month, rising about 9 percent since Jan. 1.
Soybeans, which produce smaller yields, hit a four-year low below US$10 a bushel in December last year, followed by a more modest rebound.
David Justison, who grows corn, soybeans and wheat on 3,642 hectares in south-central Illinois, scaled back his winter wheat crop last autumn, freeing up about 121 hectares where he would probably plant corn rather than soybeans.
“It just looks like it might be a little bit better economics,” Justison said.
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