Taiwan is grappling with a looming demographic crisis that threatens its social, economic and national security. Having transitioned to an “aged society” in 2018, where more than 14 percent of the population is 65 or older, Taiwan is set to become a “super-aged society” by next year, according to National Development Council projections.
This places Taiwan alongside countries like Japan, Italy and Germany that are already facing similar aging challenges. Unlike other developed nations grappling with aging populations, Taiwan’s demographic shift directly impacts its ability to maintain a sustainable defense force. The decline in military-aged men severely limits Taiwan’s capacity to defend itself. While technological advances like uncrewed systems and robotics offer potential solutions, they cannot fully compensate for the reduction in the male population.
In some countries, such as New Zealand and Australia, military service is a pathway to citizenship. Singapore, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have also been recruiting foreign nationals for their military and police forces for years. Taiwan might need to consider such an approach. This could help supplement its declining military ranks and workforce, providing a short-term fix to a problem that has no easy solution.
However, significant immigration reform would be required to make this feasible, which Taiwan has shown little interest in pursuing.
Many countries have turned to immigration as a short-term solution to workforce shortages, but Taiwan has been hesitant to follow suit. Like Japan and South Korea, Taiwan’s cultural and political landscape makes it resistant to large-scale immigration.
Recent government efforts to attract foreign talent have been hindered by strict immigration regulations and a lack of political will for reform. This reluctance limits Taiwan’s ability to address its demographic decline in the short term. Taiwan’s restrictive citizenship policies and the social resistance to welcoming more immigrants have compounded the challenge, leaving few options to counter the demographic decline.
Japan has turned to robotics to address its labor shortage and its success in integrating robotic technology into daily life is often highlighted as a model for other aging nations. South Korea is also further ahead than Taiwan in employing robotics to combat the effects of its aging population.
Ironically, despite being a global high-tech powerhouse, Taiwan’s adoption of robotics remains relatively limited and it might take a while before such solutions can effectively address the labor shortage.
The aging population is also straining Taiwan’s healthcare system. The National Health Insurance program, which provides universal coverage, is highly regarded, but its sustainability is at risk. As the population ages, healthcare costs are rising. Taiwan is already experiencing a shortage of medical professionals. Low reimbursement rates, long working hours, and government quotas on the number of doctors and nurses have created a significant healthcare gap that is only expected to worsen.
Economic factors further contribute to Taiwan’s demographic crisis. Housing prices have skyrocketed, with Taiwan fourth on the Global House Price Index. Coupled with stagnant wages and a non-labor-friendly work culture, the affordability crisis has made it difficult for young people to prioritize marriage and starting families. As a result, Taiwan’s birthrate has plummeted to one of the lowest in the world.
Although the government has introduced pro-natalist policies, such as child allowances and fertility treatment subsidies, they have only produced temporary improvements in the birthrates.
The challenge is twofold: Declining birthrates and resistance to immigration are driving rapid aging, which in turn is harming economic sustainability and national security.
While aging populations are a common feature of developed nations, Taiwan’s demographic crisis is made more complex by its geopolitical situation and cultural resistance to immigration. As the country prepares to enter the “super-aged society” category, it must navigate these challenges carefully to avoid exacerbating its already precarious position in the face of China’s growing influence and the pressures of maintaining its economic and national security.
Harun Talha Ayanoglu is a research associate at the Taiwan Center for Security Studies.
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