The race for Japan’s next leader might lack the dire rhetoric seen in the US election — warnings that choosing the wrong candidate would result in the country ending democracy or ushering in communism.
However, it is a mistake to dismiss the contest for leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), who will by default become Japan’s next prime minister, as unimportant. At stake is the future of a party that has defined postwar stability in one of the world’s most important economies. That Japanese politics fails to incite the drama seen on the other side of the Pacific is a feature, not a bug. But it is not one that will endure forever.
To remain relevant, the LDP needs to reinvent itself for a new generation. After three years of near-constant scandals under outgoing leader Fumio Kishida, lawmakers are getting desperate. The Japanese prime minister was not responsible for revelations around the Unification Church and political funding, but neither was he powerful nor savvy enough to recast these narratives. The misconduct has chipped away not just at his own popularity, but at the party’s support.
Faced with such drops in the past, party elders have closed ranks around an experienced candidate. But this time, the LDP wants to rebrand itself with a free-for-all race. Party advertising has dubbed the contest “The Match,” complete with a poster more suited to a wrestling Royal Rumble and a dramatic slogan: “Who do the times demand?”
Already, seven politicians have declared their candidacies, more than any previous election under current rules. Another three more might join before campaign sprint officially begins; the vote is set for Sept. 27. It is not just sheer numbers: The defining element of this election is the LDP’s willingness, born of its desperation, to turn to figures who previously would have been rejected as too inexperienced or unconventional. The party needs a candidate untouched by the recent scandals and untainted by association with the current administration.
The biggest beneficiary has been Shinjiro Koizumi, the 43-year-old political scion seen by many as the de facto front-runner. Ever since entering politics in 2009 he has been touted as a future leader. His father, Junichiro Koizumi, a former leader who enjoyed sky-high approval ratings when he took over, cautioned him on running before he turned 50. However, the younger Koizumi evidently sees this as his best chance.
He is off to a strong start. On Friday, he delivered an impressive performance at a press conference announcing his candidacy, smartly batting away aggressive questions about his supposed “low intellect.” He also deftly drew on elements of his father’s best work, recalling his catchphrase of “reform without sacred areas.”
Despite being a fourth-generation politician, Shinjiro Koizumi would nonetheless represent a dramatic shift. He would be the youngest leader in the country’s history, and with his camera-ready good looks and TV-friendly family, including his two young children with celebrity wife Christel Takigawa, he would visually represent the cleanest break lawmakers could hope for.
However, questions remain over his inexperience. The most senior position he has ever held was environment minister. That rawness has led him astray before, with a series of verbal gaffes that have spawned online memes about his supposed vacuousness. These concerns might instead open the door for Shigeru Ishiba, who is similarly popular with the public, but boasts deep experience in multiple senior positions. It would be the fifth and, he says, final time for Ishiba to compete in a leadership race. Taro Kono, another perennial leadership contestant, is running, but this time struggling in public opinion polls.
Takayuki Kobayashi, a rising voice from the party’s young conservatives, was an early mover and win or lose, would have boosted his profile. On Monday, Minister of State for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, a longtime ally of assassinated former prime minister Shinzo Abe, became the latest to announce her candidacy. She would represent not just a return of the right wing, but also make history as the country’s first female prime minister. The more centrist Yoko Kamikawa could also make that claim, though has yet to secure enough nominations.
It is telling that in this race the candidates with the most traditional experience — Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi or LDP number two Toshimitsu Motegi — are languishing in the polls. While the public does not decide who wins, with a general election at most just over a year away, it seems unlikely someone with little popular backing would get the nod.
In any case, it is a mistake to think that the only issue on the line is the ruling party’s election prospects. The candidates have often radically different takes on everything from the role of fiscal spending, monetary easing and higher taxes to the country’s use of nuclear power and its relationship with China. Japan’s leaders can and do make powerful changes to the arc of history, not just for the country itself, but for the region. Consider how the political situation in Asia might change if a Prime Minister Koizumi, Takaichi or Kobayashi were to visit Yasukuni Shrine; the likes of Ishiba and Hayashi have more pragmatic, or even pro-China, leanings.
The prime minister have so far been flimsy. A new leader would not only have to come up with something better, but might also have to tackle a relationship with a second Donald Trump administration in the US, this time without Abe’s support.
So many candidates complicate the electoral math and make it likely that no candidate would secure a majority. That means much depends on which two make it to a probable runoff. It is still possible that a less exciting compromise campaigner could slide in (likely facing off against Shinjiro Koizumi) and triumph. But party members should listen to the drumbeat for change.
Gearoid Reidy is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Japan and the Koreas. He previously led the breaking news team in North Asia and was the Tokyo deputy bureau chief. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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