Russian President Vladimir Putin probably believed in his heart that after invading Ukraine it would be left with no choice but to take a beating with no means of fighting back. He likely believed Ukraine would use up all of its might to defend itself and be left with no energy to turn the fight around and into Russia. He was relaxed and unburdened. Regardless of which direction the war would take, the fight would never leave Ukrainian territory. The Russian public believed the same thing and did not concern themselves with the war, with some even going so far as to support Putin.
Putin’s smug sense of security was a golden opportunity for Ukraine to implement a strategic surprise attack. Putin has assigned the majority of Russian troops to the eastern and southern Ukraine battlefronts, thereby weakening border defenses and leaving the door into Russian territory wide open. Ukraine, with intelligence provided by Europe and the US, knew the Russian military’s weaknesses. After receiving F-16 jets that gave its air force an advantage, Ukraine audaciously launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.
The Kursk region is a plain that lacks a tenable defensive position. With the Ukrainians utilizing aerial surveillance, nearly all of the Russian forces in that region were left with nowhere to hide. After annihilating Russian reinforcements, Ukrainian troops were able to vastly expand their territory. They quickly captured 82 settlements and took control of a total area exceeding 1,000km2. Ukrainian forces traversed the Kursk region, bombing and destroying two of the three large bridges along the Seim River, thereby cutting off Russian dispatch and return routes.
Putin does not dare to pull too many troops out of the front lines in eastern and southern Ukraine. Distant water might not put out a nearby fire, but to avoid being annihilated Russia is left with no choice but to further intensify attacks on Ukrainian forces in the east and simultaneously enlist new troops to respond to the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk. However, the new recruits are disorderly and lack experience. This strategy has only led to meaningless sacrifices and the loss of equipment.
Russian forces are now caught in a strategic predicament. The Kursk region that Ukraine so tenaciously defends could soon turn into an offensive base. Should Ukrainian forces move north, they could threaten Moscow. Should they move southeast, they could gradually intercept the supply routes of Russian forces. Russia inevitably must respond and can only do so by pulling a majority of troops back from the front lines. In the process, they would be met with ruthless aerial attacks. Consequently, Russian troops would become isolated, completely cut off from receiving supplies of weapons and ammunition.
Ukraine’s counterattack has not only left Putin looking for answers, but it has revealed that US and European military technology far surpasses Russia’s. It is a huge inspiration for nations that uphold democratic values. In the face of Russia’s power, Ukraine has done more than just defend itself. It has forced Russia to pay a heavy price by bringing the fight to Russian soil, allowing the people of Russia to reflect on Putin’s rule.
The fact that Ukraine could so easily break through Russia’s defensive lines should terrify China. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army uses Russia as a model. The weapons the US provided to Ukraine were comparatively outdated, yet with US intelligence support, Ukraine still had the upper hand against Russian forces. If China decides to cause trouble in the Taiwan Strait and instigate a response from the US and Japan, one can well imagine the outcome.
Tommy Lin is the chairman of the Formosa Republican Association.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
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