US President Joe Biden’s historic decision on July 21 to take his name out of the running for a second term has upended expectations for this year’s presidential election in the US.
A listlessness regarding a rematch of the same two candidates from four years ago has transformed into an explosion of excitement around US Vice President Kamala Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee. Within days and even hours, record-breaking donations flowed into the Harris campaign’s coffers, while memes about coconuts and Harris being “brat” flooded social media. What seemed to be an uphill battle for Democrats less than two weeks ago now feels like a win might be within grasp.
However, many uncertainties remain about what a Harris presidency might look like. Crucially for Taiwan, one of the biggest question marks is about her foreign policy.
Most of Harris’ career was spent as an attorney in California, followed by four years in the US Senate before being sworn in as vice president in 2021. In the Senate, she served on committees on the budget, homeland security, intelligence and the judiciary, focused primarily on domestic issues. As vice president, her biggest portfolios have been on the southern border and abortion. While she has attended international events, her remarks have toed the line of the Biden administration, offering little insight into her personal views.
Yet the little she has said about Taiwan and China has been clear. In Japan on Sept. 28, 2022, Harris said that the US would “continue to support Taiwan’s self-defense consistent with our long-standing policy” and continue to deepen unofficial ties. She praised Taiwan as a “vibrant democracy that contributes to the global good.” Considering the consistency of Democratic messaging on Taiwan, there is little to suggest that she would stray from this boilerplate rhetoric and would likely continue the steady push for closer ties of the past two administrations.
One thing she has been relatively vocal about is human rights. In 2019, she cosponsored the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act in support of protesters and has condemned China’s treatment of Uighurs. Harris said in response to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington last week that she “will not be silent” in response to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. These, in addition to her background as a prosecutor and impassioned advocacy for abortion rights, seem to suggest that human rights will be a major priority in her foreign policy. If this is the case, then supporting Taiwan and its international participation is a good way to demonstrate these credentials.
On the other hand, it is not clear what a second term for former US president Donald Trump would mean for Taiwan. He won many friends for taking a telephone call from then-president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) in 2016 and for forceful rhetoric on China, and his administration was staffed with staunch China hawks. Yet he seems to have had a change of heart, saying in a Bloomberg Businessweek interview this month that Taiwan should pay the US for its security and accusing it of stealing the US’ semiconductor industry. His economic proposal to impose 10 percent tariffs on imports across the board would also deal a huge blow to Taiwan’s export-centered economy, not to mention the shockwaves it would send across the global system.
Whatever happens in the US election in November, it is sure to have significant implications for Taipei. If the past two weeks have shown anything, it is that things can change fast. Policymakers in Taiwan and their friends in Washington should stay sharp and be nimble to respond to any possibility, including the chance of a Harris presidency.
The gutting of Voice of America (VOA) and Radio Free Asia (RFA) by US President Donald Trump’s administration poses a serious threat to the global voice of freedom, particularly for those living under authoritarian regimes such as China. The US — hailed as the model of liberal democracy — has the moral responsibility to uphold the values it champions. In undermining these institutions, the US risks diminishing its “soft power,” a pivotal pillar of its global influence. VOA Tibetan and RFA Tibetan played an enormous role in promoting the strong image of the US in and outside Tibet. On VOA Tibetan,
Former minister of culture Lung Ying-tai (龍應台) has long wielded influence through the power of words. Her articles once served as a moral compass for a society in transition. However, as her April 1 guest article in the New York Times, “The Clock Is Ticking for Taiwan,” makes all too clear, even celebrated prose can mislead when romanticism clouds political judgement. Lung crafts a narrative that is less an analysis of Taiwan’s geopolitical reality than an exercise in wistful nostalgia. As political scientists and international relations academics, we believe it is crucial to correct the misconceptions embedded in her article,
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US President Trump weighed into the state of America’s semiconductor manufacturing when he declared, “They [Taiwan] stole it from us. They took it from us, and I don’t blame them. I give them credit.” At a prior White House event President Trump hosted TSMC chairman C.C. Wei (魏哲家), head of the world’s largest and most advanced chip manufacturer, to announce a commitment to invest US$100 billion in America. The president then shifted his previously critical rhetoric on Taiwan and put off tariffs on its chips. Now we learn that the Trump Administration is conducting a “trade investigation” on semiconductors which
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