US President Joe Biden gave a shocking performance last month during a debate with his leading challenger, Donald Trump. This has put America’s presidential election in a new light, alarming many voters who had essentially made up their minds as to who best could lead their country for the next four years.
Both candidates are well known to those paying attention to this contest. But with less than four months before the voting concludes, everything now seems up in the air. Many fear that Mr. Trump would lead our country into a dark period of brittle and autocratic governance. Yet an incapacitated Biden would pose its own challenges. Our political system is unfortunately not well equipped to respond quickly to this situation.
Much can still change. As I write this piece, the summer of 2024 brings new developments in East Asia, some positive, some less so. The key encouraging trend has been President Biden’s robust support for our friends and neighbors in the region. The downside is the possibility that Donald Trump regains the White House next January. A crudely transactional man, Mr. Trump has sent disturbing signals that he would be prepared to undo years of American diplomacy in East Asia and the world.
Mr. Trump remains mired in legal and political issues that could significantly complicate his political ambitions, and even send him to jail. His dominant theme is a desire to tie policy closely to his own business interests and significantly shake up US foreign policy along the lines of transactional steps benefiting him. He seems oblivious to the fact that these steps are widely seen as antithetical to traditional American foreign policy since the Second World War. The US political establishment appears seriously alarmed by this possibility. But there remains a significant segment of American voters who find Mr. Trump’s iconoclastic approach attractive.
Neither Democrats nor Republicans appear fully committed to their putative candidates. Joe Biden faces concern that he is beginning to ail physically, a trend highlighted by his recent debate with Mr. Trump, when he seemed at times to be confused and disjointed. Both candidates are moving into old age, at a time when American foreign policy really needs sharp minds and new ideas. The US economy seems stable, but many voters have been turned off by the emerging platforms of the two leading candidates. That said, it is getting late for new faces to step into the race, a factor that appears to be widely lamented by pundits on both sides of the political spectrum.
In Asia, much attention attaches to the political terrain these days. China is in the firm grip of the autocratic Xi Jinping (習近平), who has eliminated term limits and suppressed all opposition within the country’s political circles. Like his close friend, Vladimir Putin, Mr. Xi appears to face negligible opposition to his rule. Sadly, the lack of an open and vibrant free press in either Russia or China makes it difficult for outside observers to determine what might be possible in either domestic or foreign policy.
At the same time, Putin remains mired in an ugly war with Ukraine, with substantial international support for Kiev’s position under President Volodymyr Zelensky. Beijing, while clearly offering moral support for Mr. Putin, has to date stopped short of significant material support for Moscow. Some fear that a more active role in Putin’s war might bring both political and economic sanctions that could imperil China’s already fragile economy. So far, Xi has stopped short of steps that could encourage America and its friends and allies to level sanctions on the Chinese economy, at a time when it is already slowing significantly. But the Chinese strongman still poses a serious threat that could pull Washington into a new Cold War.
Taiwan is far from a disinterested bystander to all this. Mr. Xi continues to rumble about taking more serious measures to hamper the island state’s fragile political status. Under President Biden, there is little danger here. But should Donald Trump regain the White House in this November’s US elections, that could change dramatically. Trump is hard to figure, since he often changes his foreign policy statements seemingly on a whim.
The consequences of these elections weigh heavily on both domestic and international relations. The future of western support for Ukraine would be badly shaken should Mr. Trump regain the White House. Ditto Taiwan, which has relied heavily of Washington’s moral and material support for that democratic society. Taiwan elected a kindred spirit to replace Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) when it chose William Lai (賴清德) earlier this year. But Lai faces a petulant KMT opposition in the legislature, which could make funding for the island’s defense more difficult.
To a certain extent, this is merely a continuation of the complicated and messy Taiwan political system. As it has often been said, democracy is the worst system in the world — except for all the alternatives. This is a problem neither Xi or Putin faces. But autocratic systems like theirs seem stable until they aren’t. Surprising shifts in economic or political winds can introduce a great deal of turmoil in a short period of time.
As someone who has dedicated my forty-year professional career to the study of China and Russia, I remain confident that better times are possible — though not as soon as we might wish. When one man is in control of nearly all the power, as is the case with both Putin and Xi, medical or political factors can change things in a hurry.
Let me close with some parting thoughts on Taiwan. Despite significant political and economic pressure from Beijing, Taiwan’s maturing democracy has thrived and survived. This is in no small part because it enjoys the support of Washington, as well as friends and allies like Japan, the Philippines and several other southeast Asian neighbors, all of whom share a fear of Chinese bullying. Taiwan’s economy is a shining light in a region where that isn’t always to be taken for granted. Washington has been a solid friend and patron of the island. Biden’s recent decision to give US$6.6 billion to TSMC to build three factories in Arizona demonstrates America’s commitment as well as the mutual benefits of closer cooperation.
That could be shaken if Mr. Trump prevails in this fall’s presidential elections. But even he would face strong counter-currents if he tried to weaken support for Taipei from the American Congress, as well as significant segments of the US population. All eyes will be focused on November.
Ambassador Stephen M. Young (ret.) lived in Kaohsiung as a boy over 50 years ago, and served in AIT four times: as a young consular officer (1981-’82), as a language student (1989-’90), as Deputy Director (1998-2001) and as Director (2006-’9). He visits often and writes regularly about Taiwan matters. Young was also US Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan and Consul General to Hong Kong during his 33-year career as a foreign service officer. He has a BA from Wesleyan University and a PhD from the University of Chicago.
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