Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is attempting to create an alternative international world order to the US-dominated model. China has benefited hugely from the current order since former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) opened up its economy five decades ago.
Countries can be categorized as continental or maritime, and to a great degree this determines their optimum foreign policy. China is continental, as is Russia. The US initially followed a continental foreign policy, before it settled on a maritime model. The British empire was so successful because a tiny island kingdom built a formidable naval presence.
The US-dominated world order, stabilized by its maritime policy of ensuring unobstructed trade and shipping passage and therefore wealth creation, helped the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) achieve its impressive feat of lifting millions of Chinese out of poverty. Xi now appears to believe he can now move on in creating a new order he believes would benefit China in ways that the current model does not. This is one framework in which one can understand the apparently self-destructive approach that the CCP has taken under Xi.
Xi has just returned from a five-day trip to Europe, where he visited France, Serbia and Hungary, countries relatively friendly to China.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s emphasis on European “strategic autonomy” coheres with Xi’s vision of a multipolar world; Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, and Hungarian President Tamas Sulyok and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban rolled out the red carpet. One could say the trip was successful, but there is a sense in which Xi was in damage limitation mode, mitigating the foreign policy missteps of the past few years that continue to alienate China from many European countries.
Xi has sought to achieve a network of trade connections and allies with his audacious Belt and Road Initiative. This has been successful to a degree, but has also created complications and cannot compete with the free flow of trade in the international order he seeks to replace.
Closer to home, Xi seems to be building a navy not to protect a maritime order, but to consolidate an extension of his continental holdings. Many believe his ambitions go beyond the annexation of Taiwan and control of the near coastal waters, and regional powers are on tenterhooks.
US academic Sarah Paine predicted six years ago in a speech to the Hudson Institute that this “territory grab” would lead to the formation of an opposing alliance system that would present the US with a perfect opportunity to consolidate its own influence in the area.
Paine also said that no continental power in its right mind would consider opening up two fronts of conflict, and yet Xi has angered India to the west and allowed a US-affiliated opposing alliance to form in maritime neighbors to China’s east.
The joint US-Philippines exercises that took place between April 22 and Wednesday last week is an indicator of such an alliance. France and Australia also took part in the exercises, but the list of 14 observers, including Brunei, Canada, Germany, the UK, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, would have been considering how they would deal with a crisis in the West Philippine Sea, which could easily spill into the Taiwan Strait.
Many of these countries would be expected to help the US and Philippines out due to the web of security alliances between them. Taiwan, too, would be expected to offer assistance, just as it would hope that the web of alliances would kick in should China attack Taiwan.
Xi seems to be be willing to make things difficult for himself just to prove a point.
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