“The French are all soldiers and must defend their homeland,” decreed the 18th-century law that made military service mandatory in France, until the end of the Cold War banished it to the history books and replaced it with a kind of glorified recruitment day — which I dutifully attended as a teenager and promptly forgot about.
Nobody under the age of 45 in France has forcibly worn army fatigues or picked up a weapon, including French President Emmanuel Macron.
Yet the return of war to Europe’s doorstep means France is one of several countries anxiously watching the Ukrainian front line and debating whether it is time to bring back conscription or mandatory military service.
However, what is needed now is planning rather than panic.
For those geographically closest to Russia, the issue is obviously less of a debate. Ukraine this week lowered its conscription age from 27 to 25 as it struggles to replenish the ranks of its army with able-bodied young people.
Denmark has extended conscription to women and increased its duration, and Norway is following suit. New NATO member Sweden brought back conscription in 2018.
Further West, things get muddier: The UK is debating a “citizen army” instead of more unpopular conscription schemes, while in France, Macron is promoting “civic rearmament” with a focus on improving national unity. Germany, which faces the huge challenge of steering away from decades of pacifism, is mulling a return to conscription after ditching it in 2011.
The pressures forcing governments to break an often taboo subject are understandable. What NATO officials call “expecting the unexpected” has forced countries to start looking at their ability to fight in a more dangerous world. Two interlocking worries keep coming back: One is demographic, on a continent where the median age is about 42 and birth rates are in decline.
Demography might not be destiny, but in high-intensity warfare it counts for a lot. Ukraine has been left with no alternative but to draft more 20-somethings, a smaller and more prized segment of its population, after worrying signals that the average age of its army was rising past 40.
The other challenge is voluntary recruitment into armies that have for years been forced to do more with less. Militaries are struggling to recruit young people into a career that seems full of restrictions, but light on perks and incentives — think secrecy, no social media and time away from home.
The UK army has failed to meet its recruitment targets at all training centers for the past five years; France also missed its targets last year by about 2,000.
The result is not pretty. Jean-Dominique Merchet, author of Are We Ready For War?, says that the French army’s capacity could hold a front line no longer than 80km — compared with a Ukrainian front that is about 1,000km long.
Edward Luttwak, writing in the Telegraph, said that Europe’s political and cultural realities mean that if troops had to be sent to Russia tomorrow, only very small special units would be willing and able. Hence, governments are getting less squeamish about making it all less optional.
Yet although the debate is worth having, European countries should recognize that jumping back into a conscription mindset has limits. Even in Ukraine, where pressure is greatest, hundreds of thousands of men of fighting age are said to have fled the country to avoid the draft.
Rather than the typical accusations about youngsters being weak and coddled, polls show that people under the age of 40 who would refuse to fight in a country such as the UK might be disillusioned by years of unjust wars.
Instead of assuming that all voluntary enrollment options have been exhausted, governments could be more creative. Polls do show support for the armed forces in general. There is still scope to do more to promote new roles within defense, such as in artificial intelligence (AI) and cyberwarfare, in a world where threats to national security exist in the digital cloud and vital infrastructure such as undersea cables.
New hires from the private sector — France’s new military AI initiative is headed by a former Alphabet Inc expert — would also have the advantage of bringing in fresh ideas, as well as new talent.
Where voluntary labor-market incentives fail for full-time military careers, civic duty could be rekindled with military service that aims to train reserves of part-time volunteers. France is investing in the reservist model to make up for gaps in its military ranks, expanding age limits and aiming to double its number of reservists to 80,000 by 2030.
The message from Ukraine is that defense readiness is a necessity rather than a luxury in Europe, but the fight for hearts and minds still needs work.
Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist writing about the future of money and of Europe. Previously, he was a reporter for Reuters and Forbes.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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