In congratulating president-elect William Lai (賴清德) with his election victory on X, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr risked an even more aggravated relationship between the Philippines and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Marcos’ congratulatory message was followed by his vow to “[strengthen] mutual interests, [foster] peace” with Taiwan, indicating his resolve to forge ties with the nation despite mounting pressure from Beijing.
Marcos’ diplomatic backing of Taiwan prompted China to swiftly summon and rebuke the Philippine ambassador. Chinese spokesperson Mao Ning (毛寧) went so far as to warn the Philippines “not to play with fire” on the Taiwan issue, which Chinese leaders have consistently asserted as China’s “internal affair.” As a tactic, China often uses “wolf-warrior diplomacy” to drive a wedge between Taiwan and the democratic nation’s like-minded partners, making it harder for them to back Taipei.
Since switching diplomatic relations from the Republic of China to the PRC in 1975, the Philippines has adhered to a “one China policy.” Therefore, it is highly unprecedented for the Philippine president to extend public congratulations to the president-elect of Taiwan, particularly considering that Marcos used the phrase “Taiwan’s next President” in his congratulatory message. The courteous gesture by Marcos was even deemed “surprising” or “extremely unusual” by analysts.
Marcos’ diplomatic move is noteworthy, considering the growing rift between Manila and Beijing. The Philippines sees China as a potential security threat. There have been multiple maritime confrontations between Manila and Beijing recently. One of these incidents involved Chinese coast guard and navy vessels blinding Philippine sailors to prevent them from supplying Manila’s dilapidated BRP Sierra Madre warship that is grounded on Second Thomas Shoal (Renai Shoal, 仁愛暗沙) in the South China Sea.
The militarization of China’s presence in the disputed sea and its arrogant claims of the sea as its “domestic” waters are indicators of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) ambition to construct a Chinese maritime lebensraum — meaning “living space” in German. Lebensraum was one of Adolf Hitler’s justifications for invading Central and Eastern Europe in the 1930s.
To quell China’s belligerence, the Marcos administration has prioritized closer ties with the US and Japan, two countries that have been at odds with China over its ambition for regional hegemony. The US-Philippines alliance has received lavished attention, with both sides working to enhance military interoperability and expand joint drills in the South China Sea. Japan and the Philippines also agreed in November last year to begin formal talks for a key defense pact which would allow Japanese troops to be deployed to the Southeast Asian country.
Since the start of this year, the US and its two Asian allies have been conducting large-scale military drills in the South China Sea. The three allies have all pledged to fortify their security ties in response to an alarmingly assertive China, which has some envisioning the emergence of a US-Philippine-Japan trilateral security agreement.
The fact that these three countries are working together to form a security minilateralism gives Taiwan a chance to strengthen its security. Now is the moment for the incoming Lai administration to forge ties with the Philippines with both commitment and well-planned strategies, especially as Taiwan’s diplomatic and security ties with the US and Japan are flourishing. Manila and Taipei appear to be on the same boat given their fragile relations with China, but Taiwan needs to identify fields of shared interests so that they could work together to forge stronger ties.
Since the Tsai Ing-wen (蔡茱文) administration introduced the New Southbound Policy in 2016, the relationship between Taiwan and the Philippines has grown stronger, which has been a boon to both countries. The incoming Taiwanese president and his team should invest more efforts to reinvigorate the New Southbound Policy, such as expanding agricultural exports to the Philippines, encouraging high-tech collaboration with Philippine partners and facilitating more people-to-people exchanges. The current situation presents an ideal opportunity for the governments of the Philippines and Taiwan to spur technological cooperation, as Taiwanese manufacturers of electronics, semiconductors and industrial machinery are eyeing opportunities to expand their business in the Philippines. The two countries could keep this excellent momentum going with more business-to-business discussions.
Since taking office, Marcos has been actively courting foreign investors from the US, Japan, the EU and other countries instead of relying on China for investment. Due to the deepening rift between Manila and Beijing, the Marcos administration is less hesitant to deepen exchanges with Taiwan. As a result of Marcos’ proactive pursuit of international commerce and economic prospects, the Philippines stands to gain from Taiwan’s remarkable technological and economic progress in areas such as agriculture and semiconductors, which in turn could strengthen bilateral collaboration.
The two sides should also explore possible security cooperation given that they both face the same threat. In June last year, Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) suggested that Taiwan and the Philippines should enhance ties through coast guard cooperation and disaster response. Both sides could also discuss the possibility of collaborating on conducting joint maritime scientific research activities in the South China Sea. With maritime environments threatened by climate change, pollution, coral reef depletion and biodiversity loss, joint scientific cooperation might involve initiatives to prevent an ecological catastrophe. Cooperative science activities under the framework of science diplomacy could bring the two sides closer and provide leverage for collaboration on other non-traditional activities.
Taking the time to address issues is just as crucial as finding ways to strengthen ties. Taiwan benefits economically from the presence of approximately 180,000 Filipino migrant workers, the majority of whom work in the caregiving and domestic service sectors. Prior to the elections, they started to fret over potential adjustments regarding their working conditions and protection rights by the new administration. These include fundamental adjustments, such as cracking down on the exploitative and controversial labor broker system. For the majority of Filipino workers in Taiwan, who oppose China’s aggression and envision a bright future for both the Philippines and Taiwan, this is of utmost importance.
When it comes to the US and regional powers, supporting Taiwan is as important as backing the Philippines. It would be a catastrophe for the Philippines if China were to invade and control Taiwan. Orchid Island (Lanyu, 蘭嶼), southeast of Taiwan proper, is about 150km from the northernmost Philippine territory, Batan Islands. A potential war in the Taiwan Strait might lead to China attempting to occupy Batanes Province in the Philippines. The security of Taiwan and the Philippines are closely connected.
In addition to being next-door neighbors, the Philippines and Taiwan share democratic values and recognize the significance of preserving the “status quo” in the region. Marcos’ friendly embrace of Lai and Taiwan’s democratic path suggests that Manila and Taipei could bolster their ties through shared economic interests and perhaps even seek to strengthen security ties with the US and other like-minded partners.
Huynh Tam Sang is a lecturer at Ho Chi Minh City University of Social Sciences and Humanities, member of the Young Leaders Program of the Pacific Forum and research fellow at the Taiwan NextGen Foundation. He is a visiting scholar at National Taiwan University as part of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Taiwan Fellowship program.
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