Everyone who cares about elections in Taiwan is wondering whether Hon Hai Group Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) would declare his candidacy in the presidential election scheduled for Jan. 13 next year. Gou, who is not a member of any political party, seems to be playing games with the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) on the one hand and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) on the other, and everyone knows what he wants from them — to let him serve at least one term as president.
Gou wants to run for president, but the question is who, if either, of New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), the KMT’s candidate, or the TPP’s nominee, former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), would be willing to give way to him.
There are two reasons that neither Hou nor Ko would be willing to let someone else take the helm. The first is that they have gone through the process of being nominated by their respective parties, which gives them procedural legitimacy. The second is that they are both ahead of Gou in public opinion polls.
Why would someone in a higher position give way to someone lower down? This is the principle of fair competition.
Having failed to strike a deal with either rival, Gou has been waging a kind of amphibious assault by touring Taiwan to set up beachheads and accumulate a supply of bargaining chips.
It is an interesting metaphor, but what he is really doing is undermining his rivals. After all, Gou started out in the KMT’s “deep blue” camp and has close connections within it.
Furthermore, the KMT has long-term links with local factions and has a well-organized network in local areas. Last year, the KMT won control of 14 counties, cities and municipalities, while KMT councilors were elected as speakers of 16 councils, while 14 were elected as deputy speakers.
The support or opposition of these grassroots “vote captains” is the key to whether Gou can open another “bottom up” path to challenge the orthodox candidate nominated by the KMT’s Central Committee.
This would explain why Gou has been touring KMT-governed regions, deploying his forces as he goes, with the aim of having a greater impact on KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) and the rest of the party’s central leadership.
Gou has indeed demonstrated his “strength” relative to KMT headquarters.
The KMT’s assets have been completely liquidated since 2016. Consequently, the power to allocate resources has long since changed hands. The party is now propped up more by local factions than the political elite in Taipei.
As the wealthy Gou tours the country, the power shift is highlighted in the places he visits. Examples include Changhua County Council Speaker Hsieh Dien-lin’s (謝典林) voluntary withdrawal from the KMT and Pingtung County Council Speaker Chou Dian-lun’s (周典論) open mobilization for Gou, not to mention former Miaoli County commissioner Hsu Yao-chang’s (徐耀昌) so-called “slip of the tongue” about “bringing down the KMT.”
These incidents raise the question: Is it the KMT that needs the local factions or the local factions that need the KMT?
Gou’s actions rang alarm bells. This can be seen from the fact that Chu and other KMT officials have been raising the issue of party discipline, while Hou has begun returning to a defensive position and Ko has vowed to run for president all the way.
However, it also shows that while a fourth candidate might increase tensions, it is not enough to make higher-rated contenders give way to a newcomer.
As former legislative speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) said: “Terry Gou has not yet made it clear whether he will run or not. There is still room for ambiguity.”
Wang hit the nail on the head. Gou will be sidelined if he does not play for real. If he goes on faking it, he can only do so until Sept. 17, which is the deadline for applying to collect signatures for the presidential election, or, at the outside, until Nov. 24, which is the deadline for registering as a candidate.
If he misses those deadlines, he would have to leave the stage.
What will Gou’s next step be? Only he can answer that question, but it is clear what consequences would follow from the options he has.
If Gou is not ready to start collecting signatures, his political fireworks would end next month, when calm would be restored.
If he is determined to collect signatures and reaches the threshold by Nov. 2, and if the Central Election Commission pronounces the signatures as valid by Nov. 14, then, before officially registering as a candidate on Nov. 24, Gou would be in a position to negotiate conditions with the other candidates.
Only then would the KMT and the TPP start talking in earnest about his proposal for a “grand alliance of mainstream opinion.”
If Gou keeps going until the Nov. 24 deadline, he can either not submit his candidacy, or join the KMT or the TPP.
The three options have different probabilities that will change as the campaigns evolve, but making the election a four-horse race would be irrational.
If the TPP is set on supplanting the KMT, there would be little chance of those two parties joining forces. In that case, the dream of the opposition forces forming a single ticket would remain no more than that — a dream.
Tzou Jiing-wen is editor-in-chief of the Liberty Times, the Taipei Times’ sister paper.
Translated by Julian Clegg
Speaking at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit on May 13, former president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) said that democracies must remain united and that “Taiwan’s security is essential to regional stability and to defending democratic values amid mounting authoritarianism.” Earlier that day, Tsai had met with a group of Danish parliamentarians led by Danish Parliament Speaker Pia Kjaersgaard, who has visited Taiwan many times, most recently in November last year, when she met with President William Lai (賴清德) at the Presidential Office. Kjaersgaard had told Lai: “I can assure you that ... you can count on us. You can count on our support
Denmark has consistently defended Greenland in light of US President Donald Trump’s interests and has provided unwavering support to Ukraine during its war with Russia. Denmark can be proud of its clear support for peoples’ democratic right to determine their own future. However, this democratic ideal completely falls apart when it comes to Taiwan — and it raises important questions about Denmark’s commitment to supporting democracies. Taiwan lives under daily military threats from China, which seeks to take over Taiwan, by force if necessary — an annexation that only a very small minority in Taiwan supports. Denmark has given China a
Many local news media over the past week have reported on Internet personality Holger Chen’s (陳之漢) first visit to China between Tuesday last week and yesterday, as remarks he made during a live stream have sparked wide discussions and strong criticism across the Taiwan Strait. Chen, better known as Kuan Chang (館長), is a former gang member turned fitness celebrity and businessman. He is known for his live streams, which are full of foul-mouthed and hypermasculine commentary. He had previously spoken out against the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and criticized Taiwanese who “enjoy the freedom in Taiwan, but want China’s money”
A high-school student surnamed Yang (楊) gained admissions to several prestigious medical schools recently. However, when Yang shared his “learning portfolio” on social media, he was caught exaggerating and even falsifying content, and his admissions were revoked. Now he has to take the “advanced subjects test” scheduled for next month. With his outstanding performance in the general scholastic ability test (GSAT), Yang successfully gained admissions to five prestigious medical schools. However, his university dreams have now been frustrated by the “flaws” in his learning portfolio. This is a wake-up call not only for students, but also teachers. Yang did make a big
RSS