At the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) National Congress on July 23, New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜) and former Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) finally embraced on stage, a bury-the-hatchet move long awaited by KMT supporters. As the cherry on top, the trio of Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕), Hou and Han were “reunited” in the same picture.
Nevertheless, the much-needed show of unity seems unable to stop the party wagon from going downhill. Voices in the party calling for an electoral alliance with the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) have led critics to speculate about the proposal’s feasibility.
For old democratic countries such as France or Germany, forming alliances is a common practice facilitated by electoral procedures, systems and conditions, whether it be alliances formed before elections to maximize the chances of winning, or government coalitions and the distribution of positions after elections.
FRANCE
France is a case in point when it comes to forming electoral alliances before elections. France’s political scene is composed of small parties, which usually fall within either the right or the left wings of the political spectrum. Parties on the same side of the spectrum would usually form an alliance before the presidential election, while the Cabinet is likely to be formed by the party alliance that has a parliamentary majority after the election.
As the French presidential election takes place one month earlier than the legislative elections, the coat-tail effect comes into play, where the party alliance that the winnning presidential candidate belongs to also triumphs, securing the majority in the parliament to form its own Cabinet. This saves French policymakers the trouble of negotiating to form a coalition Cabinet after the election.
As French political parties usually settle the collaboration agreement before the elections, the deals fall in place.
As the French electoral system adopts the two-round system, members of parliament or the presidential candidates must go through two voting rounds. The first round is open to all, even minor parties, but only those who receive a simple majority of more than 50 percent of votes can win. If no one gains a simple majority, then the top two candidates in the first round proceed to the second round, and only by securing a simple majority can there be a winner. The electoral system compels parties to negotiate prior to the elections.
GERMANY
Germany offers a classic example for forming a coalition government after an election. As six parties usually fall into either the right or left-wing categories, no party can secure a majority to form its own Cabinet. As a result, traditionally, after legislative elections, the party leader with the most votes calls for like-minded partners from other parties — in terms of similarity of ideology or political goals — or other parties with votes that when combined secure more than half the votes to form a coalition government. The parties sign a coalition agreement as a governance guideline.
The reason German political parties seek collaboration after elections is because of the country’s adoption of a party-centered, mixed-member proportional voting system under which voters cast two ballots: the first is cast directly for a candidate in the voter’s constituency, and the second is cast for a party. The number of party votes plays a role not only in determining the number of candidates a party can put forward, but also in distributing seats in parliament.
Consequently, German politicians are usually not incentivized to negotiate for collaboration prior to elections, but launch into action after the elections in a bid to secure a majority and an alliance. As the Cabinet is the center of political power, different political parties undoubtedly vie for a spot in it.
TAIWAN
However, the proposal to form a KMT and TPP alliance has none of the elements that form the basis of the two-round system in France or the two-ballot system in Germany. As the number of party votes decides the proportional representation of legislators at large — for instance the TPP now has five seats — in no way would the TPP be willing to take a back seat and hold back on promoting its own party, and neither would the KMT.
The Legislative Yuan is the center of power according to the Constitution of the Republic of China. Consequently, after an election, even though the president has the right to appoint the premier (and would usually do so), their main tasks should lie in diplomacy, national defense and the military. It should be up to different parties to reinvent the Legislative Yuan.
The million-dollar question remains: How could blue-white cooperation come about? It is safe to assume that both parties would still adopt a “may the best man win” mindset for the presidential elections, and spontaneously adjust when the election is around the corner.
Regarding legislative elections, it is highly likely that they would collaborate under the right circumstances. For instance, for constituencies that could swing either way, the TPP and the KMT could unite to introduce one candidate, and for those who would vote in the KMT’s favor, the TPP could play second fiddle and vice versa.
As for a post-election coalition government of the TPP and KMT, it would be a proposal well worth contemplating and planning for.
Liao Da-chi is a professor emeritus at National Sun Yat-sen University.
Translated by Rita Wang
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